2021 G5 Preview: Boise State Has A New Lease On Life
It was time for a change at head coach, even if Bryan Harsin never stopped winning.
ICYMI: This is a part of The Outside Zone’s full 2021 G5 preview series, which last looked at Buffalo. You can find a master list for all of the previews here.
When Boise State lost Chris Petersen to Washington, it made a lot of sense to designate Bryan Harsin as the man to move the program into a new era. He played at Boise State as a quarterback in the late 90s, had coached under Petersen during the heyday of his tenure, and best yet, Boise State didn’t even have to give him his first head coaching job, as he had already cut his teeth in a year at Arkansas State, going 7-5. Though Petersen left many disciples in his wake at Boise State, Harsin was largely considered the most qualified of the bunch, while also seeming to be the best approximation of Petersen in personality and coaching style.
I would say, given the benefit of hindsight, that Boise State made the right call. Though Harsin never reached the heights of his predecessor, he won double-digit games in five of his seven seasons (probably would have been six in a normal 2020) and claimed three conference titles. He largely maintained the momentum that Petersen set, and continued to establish Boise State as not just a very good MWC program, but as one of the G5’s greatest brands – one that produced as much player and coaching talent as almost any major P5 program.
He also seemed to stagnate, though. The recruiting remained atop the Mountain West, but never seemed to be able to break through into the top 50 – admittedly, a tough ask for a G5 program. More importantly, the development of that talent, once the strength of the program, seemed to falter under Harsin’s reign. Players still improved and moved on to the NFL, but a lot of the top-tier talent that Boise State did land seemed to hit with less impact than you may expect. Current quarterback Hank Bachmeier is a great example, as a former four-star that’s yet to really impose himself on the conference beyond being “pretty good and frequently injured.”
Neither side of the ball dropped significantly either, but it did feel at times like Boise State was just going through the motions. The defense was excellent under Andy Avalos, but his departure after 2018 led to a pair of less-than-great seasons. Harsin’s offenses dipped too, starting at No. 9 in the country in PPG back in 2014 and never returning to that peak again. The Broncos could still score with the best of them, but more than anything else, it just felt like Boise State had lost the edge that made it what it was. At least from the outside, this was a program that seemed to be coasting, while G5 programs elsewhere took its lunch in competing for major bowl games. With the expansion of the playoff rapidly approaching, now would certainly be a good time for Boise State to wake up and get that edge back, and I just don’t think Harsin was the guy for that.
So, it’s hard to be too upset about his departure for Auburn. I think it was just time for the two parties to split, and I think that both will likely be better for it (even if I don’t think Auburn is the job for Harsin long-term). Harsin moves up and gets to pad his resume for a potential move to the Big 12 or Pac-12, where I think he’d be more comfortable, while Boise State gets what I view as a hungrier coach in Avalos, who should be able to shake up the program without compromising its structure, given his history in Boise.
He inherits quite the first group to reestablish himself in town.
Bachmeier, two solid running backs, the best receiver in the Mountain West and four offensive linemen return on the offense, while the defense brings back nine starters, including a pair of all-conference caliber linebackers in Ezekiel Noa and Riley Whimpey.
The schedule is a bit of a different story, with a road trip to UCF and a home bout against Oklahoma State in the first three weeks of the season, but there’s no reason to think that Boise State doesn’t have the talent to roll in the MWC, especially as it draws Nevada and Wyoming at home while missing San Jose State in the regular season. A conference slate with San Diego State and Fresno State as the toughest road matchups makes up for a difficult non-conference test.
The concern, of course, is around the deployment of the talent, despite its superiority to most of the rest of the Mountain West. It wasn’t great in 2020, hasn’t been for several years now, and will depend heavily around a new-look staff this season after Avalos brought in quite a few of his own guys.
We can start with the offense, and new coordinator Tim Plough, who comes to Boise State via UC Davis. He deploys a very pass-heavy system, one that I would actually say presents a serious change of pace for Boise State – though I’m not sure if it’s the one that I would take moving forward. Boise State has always been a capable passing team, going back even before the Petersen days, but it pairs that with a strong power running game. Plough hasn’t really shown a propensity for that yet. Perhaps that changes with an experienced line and two solid running backs in Andrew Van Buren, who started last year and flashed potential but struggled to be more than a standard power back; and George Holani, a former blue-chipper that suffered an injury last season, but may be one of the best backs in the conference when healthy.
I’d probably start Holani over Van Buren if all things are equal because Van Buren lacks the top-end talent to be anything more than an efficiency play, but that’s still valuable in an offense that may be operating with a fairly barebones rushing attack, serving primarily as a complement to the main event in the passing game.
You won’t see me say this often, but I also quite liked how they incorporated receivers, namely Khalil Shakir, into the rushing attack last season. He carried just 17 times, but he averaged almost nine yards per touch, and I think he’s a good enough ball carrier to justify keeping him involved. Especially because the threat of a Shakir sweep would do wonders for both of the actual halfbacks, especially without much in the way of a quarterback running game.
The bigger story with this offense is that passing attack, which I should probably stop dancing around at some point. To put it bluntly, the passing attack worked in 2020, but Boise State needs to really hope that it works better under new management, because the foundation of this passing game was just awful. While decently efficient, essentially every big play was the result of an individual effort by either Shakir or slot expert CT Thomas. Bachmeier has a decent arm, Boise State just refused to let him use it down the field more than a few times a game.
A system that does open things up, as Plough’s portends to be, seems extremely promising. If Thomas was able to make plays like the one above…
And Shakir was able to make plays like this, in a busted-ass offense, I think a system that schemes that at least a little open, and allows for some creativity from its four-star quarterback will do wonders for this passing game. I don’t think Bachmeier has the arm for this to be a truly elite passing game, but just opening things up a bit for these receivers puts it firmly in the top 20. Pair that with what should be a good rushing attack, and you have the best offense in the Mountain West, and likely, a top 25 group overall.
Defensively, the floor is quite a bit lower because the group simply wasn’t all that good last season, but I’ve loved what I’ve seen from Avalos before, and I have no reason to think that he can’t immediately improve this defense (even if it isn’t by a ton in year one).
Nine returning starters, including the bulk of a very strong front six, will help his case significantly. For a defensive coach that really likes to generate pressure, there isn’t a much better personnel fit. Boise State deployed exotic blitz looks and varied fronts almost as much as it used base looks in 2020, and Avalos will absolutely lean into that – hence the retention of defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson.
If the secondary improves (not a huge ask, honestly), I would expect an even more aggressive Boise State front in 2020. Look for four- and five-man blitz packages to bump up to six, with two linebackers and a nickel frequently attacking the quarterback while one of the versatile ends drops into an intermediate zone – an Avalos staple that he should have the athletes to carry over at Boise.
Behind an aggressive front, I would expect more man coverage with safeties directed to roam and bait the quarterback. Boise State is going to go hard in selling out for big plays on defense this season, and the presence of nickel back Kekaula Kaniho and huge safety J.L. Skinner should help too.
As is so often the case with Boise State, a team that lives up to its talent and potential here should win the MWC and contend for a spot in the major bowl games. I don’t think this group is quite on the level of Cincinnati or the duo atop the Sun Belt, but a one-loss season is a perfectly reasonable expectation. To reach it, though, this offense has to find more big plays, and the defensive secondary needs to limit opposing offenses from matching that approach, even if it means selling out for big plays of its own.
Boise State is getting the refresh that it seemed to need this season, now it’s time to learn if that’s enough to shake off some of the malaise and look more like the Boise State of old.