2021 G5 Preview: Oh God, He's Writing About The Triple Again
This is the Navy preview, I promise
ICYMI: This is a part of The Outside Zone’s full 2021 G5 preview series, which last looked at Southern Miss. You can find a master list for all of the previews here.
There really isn’t a ton to say about Navy that hasn’t already been said. Ken Niumatalolo has built a consistently strong triple option program with the Midshipmen, taking over where Paul Johnson left off and carrying on the ideology that he rode to success to… more success. Niumatalolo is 101-67 in his time as a head coach, all at Navy, and has racked up 10 winning seasons in 14 years, including three double-digit win seasons and a really impressive stretch of winning from 2008-2016, where Navy was essentially untouchable in the ranks of the academies.
However, as Army has moved back into the win column under Jeff Monken, and as Air Force continues to do whatever the hell it does out there, Niumatalolo’s grip has slipped a bit. The Midshipmen have been glitchier than usual in recent seasons. They were excellent in 2019 with Malcolm Perry and went 11-2, but that season was surrounded by three-win seasons in 2018 and 2020. Option teams are more susceptible to this in general because of the importance of returning experience, specifically at quarterback, but it does seem like Navy is in a bit of a weird place right now as Army and Air Force continue to improve.
As it stands right now, 2021 doesn’t look like a great year for a return to power, either.
The biggest issue that Navy had in 2020 was at the quarterback spot. None of its three signal callers - Dalen Morris, Tyger Goslin and freshman Xavier Arline - looked especially comfortable, and the former two are gone from the room, as Morris graduated and Goslin moved to the slotback room. Arline got the nod in the final two games of the season against Tulsa and Army and…
Struggled. The offense wasn’t exactly firing on all cylinders before he took over either, but he really struggled to move the ball consistently, and the Navy offense was held back by way too many negative plays, which you just cannot afford in this kind of offense.
I don’t think that means that the offense is doomed for 2021 though, it may just need to adjust a bit, which it already started to do at the end of 2020. Arline is more than capable as a runner, and can make the option reads, he just didn’t seem especially comfortable doing it from under center.
Obviously, that’s a bit of a problem for Navy, but a shift to more looks like this one and less of the more standard under center stuff isn’t unheard of at Navy. Perry was similarly more comfortable from the shotgun, and I think that offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper has this kind of thing in his back pocket if needed. Arline will need to cut down on the negative plays regardless, but I think a shift to more spread stuff would be beneficial for him.
If he is more comfortable, the offense around him really shouldn’t be that bad, because it’s a pretty standard Navy group. Fullback Jamale Carothers is back, as are three starting linemen - though the skill talent is pretty much starting over, because Navy didn’t seem to have a ton of interest in the “super seniors” idea.
The defense, on the other hand, returns just about everyone, and I think there are plenty of reasons to think that it is in for a big year. After a brutal stretch at the beginning of the season that seemed to be directly caused by the pandemic and a weird practice schedule, it was absolutely awesome down the stretch. Granted, some of those late season offensive opponents were fairly rough on their own, but I think that Navy could field one of its better defenses in recent years this season.
It’ll likely need it. A return to “capable” on offense will go a long way, but both Army and Air Force look very good this season. In the always-solid AAC, Navy will need to find wins somewhere, and it’s likely going to need to come from competent option offense (read: efficient) and a very good defense. That isn’t impossible, but I think a return to bowl eligibility is about the most optimistic expectation you can have for this group.