2021 G5 Preview: The Memphis Regression Is Troubling. Is It Real?
Was 2020 a blip or a sign of things to come?
ICYMI: This is a part of The Outside Zone’s full 2021 G5 preview series, which last looked at Tulane. You can find a master list for all of the previews here.
There’s no such thing as an attrition-proof football program, especially when we’re talking about coaching staff attrition. No matter how strong the bones of a football team are, losing coaches will eventually have an impact on the product if it happens frequently enough. Hiring from within is a very good way to maintain stability, but a copy of a copy, or in some cases, a copy of a copy of a copy is just not as good as the original thing, and it’s going to lead to some cracks in the foundation.
We talked about this earlier in the season for the Georgia Southern preview. Southern hit so big with Erk Russell and looked to keep it in the family until the family could no longer produce capable replacements. There are only so many good coaches in America.
I’m not yet ready to say that Memphis has exhausted this tree of hyper-explosive offense-first coaches. New head coach Ryan Silverfield has been in charge just one season – the weirdest possible season to take over as a head coach during – and his team still went 8-3, but the nature of his hire is what it is. Memphis promoted him because he coordinated Mike Norvell’s electric rushing attack after it hired Norvell to maintain the electric rushing attack that Justin Fuente created.
And in year one, he looked a lot like a former offensive line coach getting his first shot at the big time. The offensive play-calling became more conservative, while the line play took a step in the wrong direction. That happens a lot when a line coach is asked to do more than coach the line.
Obviously, we have some extenuating circumstances here. Aside from the obvious, Memphis was down star running back Kenneth Gainwell, and really never seemed to trust his replacements. Quarterback Brady White had one more year and town and was asked to lead the offense because of it. For an offense based on rhythm and momentum, Memphis never really had a chance at generating either. I’m happy to give Silverfield a clean slate for this season before declaring regression to the mean in Memphis after the departures of two excellent head coaches and quite a few more strong assistants. But, the explosion and the fun in this offense needs to return, and with a very easy schedule and a ton of returning skill talent, there’s no real excuse for it not to.
Passing Offense
The part of the offense that will actually suffer from attrition this offseason also happens to be the one that was consistently pretty capable in 2020. The passing attack wasn’t great by any means, but White was one of the AAC’s best passers and the receiving trio of Calvin Austin III, Tahj Washington and tight end Sean Dykes was spectacular. When the line could keep White upright, it was very hard to stop this group.
Now, White has graduated and Washington is off to USC. Austin and Dykes return, but a new quarterback and a new No. 2 receiver will need to emerge for the Tigers to approach a similarly effective passing attack in 2021.
The primary candidates in the battle for the former are two players that I actually like quite a bit: Arizona transfer Grant Gunnell and LSU transfer Peter Parrish. There are a few others on campus, but these are the two I’m interested in. The former was a high three-star in the class of 2019 that landed at Arizona, found himself completely lacking for a supporting cast, put up two pretty solid years as a starter and then transferred as Kevin Sumlin got fired.
Parrish, meanwhile, was a 2019 four-star for LSU that was kicked out of school after being accused of rape.
I think the latter is closer to what White brought to the table, but I think Gunnell has a much better arm and fits this offensive scheme quite a bit better. He’d be my pick.
When I say “fits the offensive scheme” I should elaborate a bit, because White was obviously pretty prolific here, so you’d think that being closer to him would be beneficial. However, I think Memphis really wants to throw the ball down the field, and Gunnell is better at that than White was. The Tigers saw deep shots frequently underthrown last season, and with the talent returning at wideout, it makes a lot of sense to go with Gunnell and eliminate that. Austin and Dykes can be very dangerous if you let them stretch the defense vertically.
Memphis even played around with some very cool deep shot quick-hit stuff, designed to look like RPOs to defensive backs. Gunnell will need to be as quick on the draw as his predecessor was, but I really liked what I saw from him at Arizona in that department.
That leads into my bigger question about Gunnell - or any replacement quarterback. How will he handle the actual RPOs? Memphis may want to go down the field more, but there are still a ton of RPOs in this offense, many of which require multiple reads, like this one. White excelled in these plays. Will a younger quarterback have the same success, or will Memphis need to cut down the playbook and remove cool looks like this one, with the halfback into the flats to the boundary, while a glance from the boundary pulls the defense away from said halfback.
I’m less concerned about throwing screens (it seems easy enough). With Austin back, this should still be a consistent threat.
Running Offense
Typically the crown jewel of Memphis under previous management, the rushing attack took a pretty stark step in the wrong direction in 2020. And yes, losing Gainwell is a big part of that. However, I still like a lot of the guys here, and it seemed like many of the issues with the running game in 2020 revolved around, as mentioned earlier, a step back in line play.
Leading rusher Rodrigues Clark returns, as do No. 2 and No. 3 backs Kylan Watkins and Asa Martin, the Auburn transfer. For lack of a better phrase, all three look a whole lot like Memphis halfbacks - quick, slightly undersized, and good at finding the hole.
Clark is the most proficient but least athletic of the three, though he’s no slouch. He lacks elite top-end speed, but he reads his blocks really well and finishes his runs stronger than his cohorts. In an offense with a lot of run designs that require patience, he’s a good fit, even if he lacks big play ability.
I like him running to the outside too, because he really doesn't mess around. Memphis’ running game requires patience, but it still wants backs to attack the play, and he does. I’m encouraged that Memphis can rely on him as a consistent ball carrier, while it leans on the other two to create some bigger plays.
I also like that there is still some creativity here. The playbook hasn’t changed, Silverfield just needs to be a little more willing to open it up frequently. There’s skill talent here and a cool system in that book somewhere. If the line improves and the passing game holds roughly steady, Memphis should be at least fun to watch again next year, which it really wasn’t this season. With an above-average defense and an easy schedule, I think 9-3 is firmly within the realm of possibility. That’s probably enough to ward off regression talk for another year.