2021 Preview: Louisiana Tech Is Nearing The Danger Zone
Can Skip Holtz pull off a quick rebuild?
ICYMI: This is a part of The Outside Zone’s full 2021 G5 preview series, which last looked at Texas State. You can find a master list for all of the previews here.
Skip Holtz isn’t much for volatility. He’s made a name for himself at the G5 (specifically the lower end of it) level as a stable hand that can guide a program to consistent success in the 7-9 win range while hiring good assistants, recruiting well and adapting with the sport. It’s a strong niche, and one that’s kept him employed as a head coach every year since 2005, when East Carolina hired him away from South Carolina to take over for John Thompson, who had tanked the program in two seasons.
Holtz righted the ship quickly, and then won in that consistent range for four years - going 5-6 in 2005 and then 8-5, 9-5 and 9-5 in his next three before jumping for South Florida. For whatever reason, he couldn’t reach that level with the Bulls. He went 8-5 with Jim Leavitt’s roster, 5-7 in year two with one of the unluckiest teams of all time (these guys were top 50 in offense and defense and lost five one-score games, four of which came on what were essentially walk-off scores for the other team) and then fell off a cliff in year three with another horribly unlucky group.
He bounced right back at Louisiana Tech, though. Taking over a very good program directed previously by Sonny Dykes, Holtz kept the good times rolling. He won nine games in each of his first three years, took a couple of down years (seven and eight wins in 2017 and 2018 respectively) before jumping to new heights with a 10-3 campaign in 2019.
In 2020, well, there’s that damn cliff again. The Bulldogs, in attempting to replace star quarterback J’Mar Smith and offensive coordinator Todd Fitch - along with a significant part of its line and defense - bumped into the kind of issues that Holtz teams don’t often face. The offensive line was terrible and made a otherwise solid quarterback in Luke Anthony look like a crazy person because of how afraid he was that the pocket would collapse on every play. The defense forgot how to pressure the passer and lacked the talent to make up for it in the defensive backfield, especially in a zone system that its back seven didn’t ever seem comfortable with. For the first time since his tenure at USF, that steady, program-guiding hand of Holtz looked mighty shaky.
That’s not an issue… yet. Teams have bad years, even teams known for their consistency, and Louisiana Tech found itself in pretty dire straights last season. The 2020 campaign is, admittedly, not a great time to need to break in new faces all over the field and in the booth with a pair of new coordinators.
So, why do I say that the Bulldogs are nearing the danger zone in 2021? Well, there are two reasons. The first is a bit circumstantial, so bare with me. In breaking down that Holtz resume, you may have picked up on something: He’s never really cleaned up his own mess before. Certainly it’s hard to blame him for that too much, because he’s really only ever made one mess in his career and it’s not like he damaged USF long-term, he just couldn’t get it right there. However, this isn’t really an escape artist, historically. The worst non-first year season he had at ECU or Louisiana Tech was 7-6, and neither of those teams was especially well-represented by that record. The 2006 ECU team went 7-6 but lost three one-score games and a fourth to the No. 4 team in the country. The offense wasn’t very good, but the defense was solid enough that this probably should have been another eight-win group that just didn’t get the right bounces.
The 2017 Bulldogs were top 55 on both sides of the football and dropped four one-score games. You see where I’m going with this. Holtz bounced back from both of those “down” seasons with relative ease, but it’s hard to consider either of those teams bad, at least relative to their conference and expectations. There were no structural issues there. The 2020 version of Louisiana Tech was bad. It was bad at blocking, bad at defending the pass and came out on the opposite side of that close game stat, winning three games by one score (including a pair of those “essentially walk-off” scores) and a fourth against a bad FCS program. One of the five losses saw Louisiana Tech within a touchdown. This was a .500 team that was lucky to be .500, and that’s not really something that Holtz has ever successfully bounced back from before - but again, it’s not like he has a ton of experience in these situations. That could be a positive or a negative.
The second reason has a lot less room for gray area: Louisiana Tech is 105th in Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings. The offense is 116th, the defense is 82nd. If you’re really, really reaching, you could say that losing bad production isn’t bad news. I’m not going to reach here and I’m not going to sugarcoat it - this is not good.
It isn’t untenable, though. There are things to be positive about here - plenty - this is just a team that will be facing quite a few more questions than Holtz is accustomed to. There’s a very obvious path for a quick bounce back here, but seeing the path and actually staying on it are two very different things.
So, what’s the path? It starts with Anthony who, as I alluded to, played pretty well in 2020 when he wasn’t running for his life. A graduate transfer from Abilene Christian transfer in 2020, Anthony’s game translated pretty well to the FBS level. He completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,479 yards, 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions. His arm isn’t anything especially impressive, but he’s a capable G5 starter that can win games in a solid offense.
Louisiana Tech’s group was not that in 2020, and it caused pretty severe issues for Anthony, especially against defenses that could pressure him without blitzing, which was jaw-droppingly easy for the more talented teams on Louisiana Tech’s schedule like Marshall or BYU.
That’s not me being overdramatic, either. Here’s BYU, getting to Anthony with three rushers on first down. You cannot build a successful offense around a line that does this. Louisiana Tech rarely had the time to throw the ball down the field, couldn’t run with any sort of consistency and saw its quarterback bail far too early on plays that were blocked well because he was made gun-shy by his blockers.
Despite all that, Anthony’s numbers were still… pretty good? Not terrible? And unless something has changed since December, it seems as though Anthony will be back in 2021 after suffering a pretty gruesome leg injury at the end of the 2020 season. Whether he’ll actually be capable of playing is still up in the air, but he didn’t suffer any serious ligament damage, just several fractures. He indicated his intention to take advantage of the extra year of eligibility.
"The unwavering support that I have received from both the Ruston and the Tech communities since the moment I arrived in March has been incredible," Anthony said. "I look forward to coming back stronger than ever and helping Tech football continue to be the elite program that we all know it is."
Even if he can’t go, I’m not especially worried about the quarterback position. Backup Aaron Allen is a rising junior and the future starter at the position if he stays put, after nearly winning the job outright in 2020. It’s funny to see a struggling team with so much stability at quarterback, but Louisiana Tech has it.
The next part of this path to success moves to the offensive line, and specifically to new offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo. This is a group that needs a fresh start, and while I absolutely hate hiring a long-time NFL assistant at the college level, especially at a position that requires a lot of teaching (NFL guys tend to struggle with dumbing their stuff down for players that don’t do this as a full-time job), I’ll reserve judgement on the new man in charge of the trenches for at least this season. Maybe he can turn things around. Louisiana Tech needs it.
If the line does improve, expect a very solid passing attack from this offense, still with very little to offer on the ground. Both leading halfbacks - Israel Tucker and Justin Henderson - are departing, leaving senior Greg Garner and sophomore Harlan Dixon as the lone halfbacks with any sort of significant experience on the roster. They have a combined 42 career carries for 142 yards and two touchdowns. Count me as skeptical. Newcomers Marcus Williams (an Appalachian State transfer that’s been consistently good for years but never a lead back) and Marquis Crosby (low three-star freshman that needs to add weight) bolster the group, with the former looking like the most likely starter.
The passing attack isn’t in an especially great place with returning starters either, but the stability at quarterback helps soften the blow, as does the presence of budding star (and one of my favorite college football players) Smoke Harris, a 5-6, 184-pound screen machine that should see about 100 targets in 2021. He isn’t the fastest receiver in the world, but he’s built like a brick shithouse and he catches everything.
He’s joined by senior Isaiah Graham, senior Griffin Hebert, junior Wayne Toussant, senior Jawuan Johnson and Kyle Maxwell, all of whom combined for 117 receptions, 1,264 yards and 16 touchdowns last season. Pretty good, right? That’s a good chunk of change, and I’d expect Harris and Maxwell specifically to see improvement this season, as both are still pretty young.
The bad news isn’t terrible, but it’s certainly not good: Cee Jay Powell (37 receptions, 271 yards) and Adrian Hardy (33/444/4) are both gone, and I haven’t been able to confirm if Graham or Johnson are actually returning, I’m just assuming they are. That’s not disastrous, but it is the No. 2 and 3 receivers from the 2020 team gone for sure, with the potential to lose No. 4 and 7 as well (though right now, we’ll say they’re sticking around). That’s a decent amount of production to have to replace, and two distinct styles that Louisiana Tech is now without at wideout, at least in terms of proven replacements. Powell spent even more time in the short yardage game than Harris did, but I don’t think that’ll be a huge issue, because Harris can just absorb those targets pretty easily.
I have more questions about replacing Hardy, who was essentially the only receiver on the team that could make plays down the field.
Hebert seems like the natural replacement, given his size (6-3, 217 pounds) and ability to do this, but we’ll see. My snap guess right now is that Harris will remain the short yardage standout, with Graham and Hebert as the outside receivers and Maxwell as the first man off the bench. Toussant is best used on special teams but will see time as a sub for Harris, while Johnson has a spot primarily as the second slot receiver if Louisiana Tech goes four-or-five-wide and wants two quicker receivers out there. Even with the losses, this is a well-rounded and strong group, one of the best in the conference. If Anthony can stay upright, this passing attack is going to win Louisiana Tech some games.
Defensively, I’m less confident in a significant turnaround, but like with the offense, there is a path to the light here. Defensive coordinator David Blackwell struggled mightily in installing his zone-heavy 4-2-5 in 2020, but he was awesome in one year with Old Dominion, and I’m confident that he can coach, I just need to see it happen with these players.
The biggest issue in 2020 was in the execution of that zone defense. None of these schemes are bad, per se, but Louisiana Tech was bad at them. Cover 2 isn’t going to work especially well if there are significant gaps in that underneath shell, and Louisiana Tech struggled with that frequently in 2020. Defenders were too easily distracted by things happening outside of their zones, leaving room in between those zones for receivers to sit in, creating an easy throw for the passer.
This wasn’t helped either by an inability to rush the passer. This backfield wasn’t good enough for Louisiana Tech to blitz confidently, so it frequently dropped seven into coverage, gave the quarterback about 15 minutes in the pocket and then eventually busted on one of its zone assignments, making for another one of those easy throws. Those kind of problems are distinct both on the film and in the advanced metrics, which saw Louisiana Tech rank 87th in success rate allowed (44.3 percent); 82nd in standard down success rate (48.4 percent) and 98th in passing down success rate (44.7 percent). It was close to the 100 range against both the run and the pass in success rate. Put simply, there were just too many free yards tp be had against this defense.
The good news is that if you’re going to fix something about a defense, you’d probably rather it be efficiency than explosiveness. Louisiana Tech was legitimately pretty good at limiting big plays: 56th in defensive explosiveness; 97th on standard downs; 15th on passing downs; 89th on running plays; 42nd on passes. Not terrible. That tells me that the issues here were not inherent to the scheme, resulting in massive lapses, but rather a result of either misfit personnel or personnel that didn’t quite grasp what it was being asked to do. Louisiana Tech needs to hope that it isn’t the former, because a full offseason can fix the latter.
Right now, I think that the Bulldogs are going to get some good news on that front. As mentioned, this isn’t a terribly experienced group, but it isn’t in an awful spot, either. There’s young talent here like linebacker Tyler Grubbs and defensive backs Bee Jay Williamson and Cedric Woods, along with several experienced players who could return in Trey Baldwin, Ezekiel Barnett and Jaiden Cole. Milton Williams, the team’s best pass rusher, is headed to the NFL, but 4.5 sacks really shouldn’t be that difficult to replace, in theory. They also add former Arkansas safety Myles Mason and former Tennessee cornerback Baylen Buchanon, both of whom saw inconsistent starting time at their previous stop.
In other words, there’s talent here. It’s talent that didn’t seem to grasp the system in 2020, but talent nonetheless. I like Blackwell, I think he can succeed here, but like with the new offensive line coach, I need to see it first.
That’s where I stand with a lot of this roster. I like the offensive skill talent, and I really like the quarterback room. The defense has talent and should improve, if for no reason other than “last year was unthinkably bad.” This is a strong staff and there’s no real reason to think that Holtz can’t returning to winning, even if he doesn’t really have a track record of bouncing back from a bad year. However, there are just those nagging questions that make it difficult to buy in fully. This should be an improved team in 2021. But a bad offensive line, a confused defense, a still fairly new-look coaching staff and a head coach that isn’t used to needing to bounce back are all causes for concern. I want to believe that Louisiana Tech is just fine, and will jump right back to eight or nine wins in 2021, but I need to see those questions answered before I’m ready to trust this team.