2021 Preview: North Texas Is Hunting For Balance
North Texas' offense is going to be awesome. Can the defense keep up?
ICYMI: This is a part of The Outside Zone’s full 2021 G5 preview series, which last looked at Florida International. You can find a master list for all of the previews here.
North Texas looked ready to take command in the West division of Conference USA after the 2018 season. The Mean Green had just gone 9-4 - their second straight nine with season - lost three games by just one possession and returned one of the best quarterbacks in America in Mason Fine. Meanwhile, the reigning champ, UAB, would have to feel some impact from its death after the 2014 season, right? Head coach Bill Clark had filled his roster with JUCOs, and those JUCOs were going to leave in droves after the excellent 2018 campaign. The space was there for North Texas to fill atop the division, head coach Seth Littrell was one of the hottest names in the game and Fine was surrounded by what looked like another excellent offense.
Then, the wheels fell off. Fine was excellent and the offense was still largely passable, but Littrell’s unflappable offense was suddenly very much flappable with struggles up front and without offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. The vertical threat of the offense was gone and North Texas became much easier for defenses to contain. On the other side of the ball, the North Texas defense fell off a cliff, unable to prevent big plays, stop the run or accomplish just about anything positive with any sort of consistency. Meanwhile, UAB fell slightly back to Earth but remained good, while Louisiana Tech took advantage and jumped into the top spot in the West. Fine graduated, and North Texas was left right back where it had started at the beginning of the Littrell era: in need of a spark.
It didn’t find it in 2020. The offense remained above average, led by a pair of pretty good quarterbacks in Autsin Aune and Jason Bean, a trio of halfbacks (Deandre Torrey, Oscar Addaway III and Tre Siggers) and one of the best receivers in the nation in Jaelon Darden. The defense did not bounce back as needed, though, and it cost coordinator Clint Bowen his job. It cost UNT on the field, too, putting up a 4-6 record that didn’t really see it look competitive in any of those losses.
That leaves Littrell and the Mean Green in a weird spot in 2020. Just about everyone is back save for a few transfers - namely Siggers and Bean along with a few defenders - and Darden, but this is a program in need of a jolt. Does this roster have the ability to bounce back? Sure. Is the trio of Littrell, new OC Mike Bloesch and new DC Phil Bennett enough to get that job done? Right now, it doesn’t feel right to say yes definitively. Littrell’s stock has cooled significantly and while his offensive chops are still hard to talk down on, this team had that distinct staleness to it last year. The air raid is what it is, and while Littrell is not as close an adherent to it as he used to be, it’s still in his blood, and that’s an offense that has a tendency to wear out its welcome. So, how does North Texas avoid that and stage a reemergence?
It’s going to start at quarterback, obviously. Bean is gone, as mentioned, but I don’t think he was the better of the two last season. His mobility was a nice addition to the offense and helped out the running game significantly, but he wasn’t especially accurate and he took way too long to throw the football. Aune isn’t perfect either, but he has a better arm and fits into this system better. North Carolina transfer Jace Ruder is here too and was a four-star coming out of high school, but I’d be lying if I said I was confident in his ability, especially given the fact that he won’t arrive on campus until the summer. Aune is my pick for this job right now, and I think that’s perfectly fine for North Texas. He isn’t Fine (proper noun Fine, not adjective fine), but he can get the job done.
He fits into the system pretty well too. New OC or not, this is always going to be the Littrell offense, and that means two things. Firstly, there are going to be a lot of deep shots. North Texas loves the play action with a primary target as a vertical shot approach and will continue to hit it hard in 2021, especially if Aune is the quarterback. He’s not quite Josh Allen, but he can get the ball down the field on these deep throws with enough consistency that there’s no real reason to go away from it.
He should have good receivers to throw to, too. There’s no replacing Darden, who was a massive part of what this offense did in 2020, but the pantry is not bare by any means. Deonte Simpson is back (see above) and fits fairly well into the Darden archetype. He’s not as shifty and he’s a bit bigger, but I wouldn’t be stunned if North Texas moves him into the slot just out of necessity. Losing Austin Ogumakin to the transfer portal stings, but as a bigger receiver, he isn’t really where the potential weakness lies in this group - there are plenty of larger bodies that can and will take his spot, starting with Jyaire Shorter, who should be back and healthy in 2021 after missing most of 2020 following a solid 2019 campaign.
If not Simpson, who may be too valuable outside, youngsters Loronzo Thompson, Detraveon Brown and Damon Ward or true freshman former Oklahoma commit Caleb Johnson could slide to the inside for some early playing time, though the latter doesn;t arrive until summer. It’s one of the most talented rooms on the team, but finding contributors outside of Simpson and Shorter (if he’s healthy) is going to be a focus in the spring.
I mention the need to replace Darden in the slot not just as a true positional requirement for the offense, but because the slot really, really matters for North Texas. It’s without a real tight end target in the passing game - maybe this is finally returning senior Jason Pirtle’s year - and loves to run extended RPO glances like this. You need a whole lot of speed to make this route work before you line gets dinged for blocking down the field, and I don’t think Shorter has that. Simpson might, but again, it’s risky to move him inside if you aren’t absolutely sure you can get him touches - which I wouldn’t be if I was North Texas, but I’m not the one making the call. Finding a receiver that can do this and make plays after the catch from that pile is going to play a huge role in determining how good this passing attack will be. The line can hold up, I trust Aune as a passer and the experienced receiver duo, but a good No. 3 is huge for North Texas.
The running game is less interesting, through no fault of its own. Torrey and Adaway II are back and will take the vast majority of the carries. Neither is spectacular, both are good - specifically Torrey, who has some very nice bounce to his game that I enjoy to watch - and both will play a consistent role in this offense, though not as the stars. The North Texas running game will chew up yards and that’s exactly what it needs to do.
The big concern is obviously the defense, and if I’m being honest, it’s hard to be too optimistic here. I don’t really like the Bennett hire, partially because of his ties to Art Briles era Baylor and partially because I just don’t think he’s an especially good coach. I don’t love this budding industry of air raid specialist DCs like Alex Grinch or Zach Arnett and Bennett certainly fits that billing, but I suppose there are worse approaches to take. He’ll likely clean up the pass defense a bit with his shift to the 4-2-5, and there are pieces to like here, just not a ton of them in the back seven.
Of the parts I like on this defense, none stand out more than tackle Dion Novil, one of my favorite defensive linemen in the CUSA. He’ll lead what should be an average to slightly above average group up front. The linebacker pairing of KD Davis and Tyreke Davis is solid too, and I do think that this team is in for improvement against the run, it’s just that the run isn’t really what I’m concerned about. This secondary was putrid last season and I just don’t see it getting much better.
Starting safeties Cam Johnson and Makyle Sanders are both in the transfer portal. DeShawn Gaddie and Upton Stout are sure starters and Keelan Crosby will find time too, but past those three, there are a lot of question marks. North Texas really needs two of TyRae Thornton (Rice transfer) John Davis (Texas Tech transfer) and Logan Wilson (ULM transfer) to hit for this secondary to take a step forward, unless Bennett is a better coach than I’m giving him credit for.
Ultimately, it’ll be the defense that holds this team back as it has been for two years now, but I don’t think it will be as drastic as it has been. If the defense can move into the top 100 nationally in most categories, the offense should be good enough to get North Texas back into a bowl game, with a foundation to build on moving forward as it continues to haul in good recruiting classes. Littrell isn’t being mentioned for P5 jobs anymore and won’t be for several years, but that may not be the worst thing in the world, at least not for North Texas. He’s a good coach and he knows when something isn’t working. The question for 2021 and moving forward is whether or not he can fix it. So far, the answer is no.