2022 G5 Preview: ECU Is (Slowly) Building
The Pirates aren't cutting corners, and their plan for improvement is working.
This is part of the American Athletic Conference Preview, the final conference in the Outside Zone’s Group of Five season preview package. Check out the preview landing page for all previous stories. All previews and the entire Outside Zone archive are available for only $5 a month or $50 a year.
Last season’s Outside Zone preview on ECU was all about turning hope into results. The Pirates had generated hype at the end of each of their first two seasons under Mike Houston, but the hype had all but evaporated one month into 2020, and it was fair to have similar fears about 2021. ECU touted one of the league’s best veteran quarterbacks in Holton Ahlers, but little of the team outside of him was proven.
“In year one, ECU floundered early but managed to look improved late in the season, putting up real fights against UCF and Cincinnati and beating UConn in three of the final four games of the season,” I wrote last offseason. “ECU was still without a true playmaker not named Ahlers, but that improvement was encouraging and portended good things for 2020.
“Then in 2020, ECU did… pretty much the same exact same. It struggled early, closed strong, and found one player – Ahlers - that could be consistently leaned on to make plays. It’s easy to again generate some excitement about ECU entering 2021 given the way it ended the 2020 season, but at some point, Houston needs to win some games, and find some players outside of Ahlers.”
The narrative is changed entering 2022 because ECU did exactly what it needed to do: it won some football games. After a 4-8 mark in year one and a disappointing 3-6 showing in 2020, the Pirates leaped up to 7-5 in 2021.
COVID issues canceled what would have been the program’s first bowl appearance since 2014, but the 2021 season still did exactly what it needed to do. It provided critical proof of concept for head coach Mike Houston, who can enter his fourth season this fall with real momentum behind him, rather than preseason hype that hadn’t yet borne any results.
The Pirates should be positioned to take full advantage of that bump. They return seven starters on either side of the ball, including (somehow) another year of Ahlers, two very good tailbacks, the entire linebacker corps and a very capable defensive line. This schedule isn’t ideal for a team looking to make another jump in the standings, but ECU will be better this year than it was last – even if likely losses to BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and N.C. State will make that difficult to prove.
At this point, we have to assume that Ahlers will never leave. The 6-3, 230-pound signal-caller has manned the ECU offense since 2018 and is set to be one of the few fifth-year starting quarterbacks in the history of the sport this fall. As you may expect with such a large sample size (Ahlers has thrown 1,388 collegiate passes and racked up more than 10,000 yards), the book is just about written on him.
He completed 61.8 percent of his passes in 2021, the highest rate of his career while racking up 3,126 yards and 18 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. He averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, which was firmly in the range he’s set for his career. He’s never averaged fewer than 6.8 yards per attempt (2018), but he’s also never gone above 7.7 (2019). His efficiency rating was in the 130s for the third straight season. The 2021 season was basically identical to the 2019 season, the only other full year of starting in his career.
Ahlers has a better supporting cast this season than he has before, but it seems fair to expect about the same production from him in 2022. He’s limited in throwing down the field. He’s a very good playmaker who operates well within the structure of ECU’s offense. The Pirates like to get the ball out quickly, and Ahlers does that better than just about anyone in the AAC.
He’s liable to make a few poor decisions a game and throws too many interceptions for a quarterback in this kind of system, but the rest of his game is solid. It’s funny to say this about such a veteran quarterback, but Ahlers is probably the least interesting part of this offense. He is who he is.
The intrigue on this offense is elsewhere. C.J. Johnson is back and set to take over as WR1 with the departures of Tyler Snead and Audie Omotosho. He was suspended this spring but has returned to the team and will look to build on a 35-reception, 520-yard 2021 campaign. He needs to add more to his game after working largely as a deep threat last season and has the athletic ability to do so, though his hands remain a question mark.
Isaiah Winstead was an offseason addition by way of Toledo and will likely factor into the starting lineup opposite Johnson. He had 38 receptions for 520 yards last season and will be a nice possession complement to Johnson.
The third spot is up for grabs and could fall to any number of players, depending largely on the style preference of ECU’s staff. Georgia transfer Jaylen Johnson is probably the best of the bunch, but ECU has deployed hybrid players in the slot before and could turn to someone like Maceo Donald or Jhari Patterson. Duke transfer Jarrett Garner and incumbent reserve Tyler Savage will play roles as well, likely behind the pair of outside receivers.
There’s a case to be made for using that third receiver spot on a second halfback. The Pirates tout two very good ones and love to get the tailback involved in the passing game. They’ll use two-back sets as well, but keeping the pair on the field together as much as possible might be a better use of that space than an inexperienced slot receiver would be.
Those backs would be sophomores Keaton Mitchell and Rahjai Harris. Mitchell was the better ball carrier of the two last year, toting the rock 174 times for 1,132 yards and nine scores, while Harris did more of the dirty work. He carried 164 times for 579 yards. Mitchell is the more explosive of the two and would be a better option for speed in the slot, catching 22 passes for 253 yards last season, but Harris has better hands (24 receptions, 162 yards), and giving him time in the slot would be taking less away from the rushing attack than moving Mitchell would.
The offensive skill corps rounds out with a pair of returning contributors at tight end, which ECU leaned on far more in 2021 than ever before. Sophomore Shane Calhoun works as the “true” starter and the blocking specialist of the two, while Ryan Jones will rotate onto the field frequently as a pass-catching expert, pulling down 37 receptions for 442 yards last season. Houston added a two-tight end wrinkle into the offense last year to great effect and will likely use it even more this year.
Three starters are back up front for a line that made some steps last year and should do the same this year. It’s a very good offense, with very few questions about where production will come from. Johnson’s growth as a receiver will go a ways toward setting the ceiling, but the expectations here aren’t especially hard to lock in. A slight improvement on last year’s figures, which saw the Pirates finish 54th in points per game, is the standard.
Expectations for a leap are far greater on the other side of the ball. ECU finally found some answers defensively last season under now third-year DC Blake Harrell, checking in 64th in points per game and top 80 in most major metrics. It still wasn’t good, certainly, but it wasn’t bad either, and that’s all the Pirates really needed from this group.
To make another jump this season, they’ll need more than that, and the defense is well-positioned to deliver. Seven starters return from the 2021 group, including linebackers Myles Berry and Xavier Smith, who played as a rush end last year but is moving to the inside this fall. Neither were major threats to make big plays last year, but both are rock solid and will form one of the better pairings in the league.
Joining them is outside linebacker Jeremy Lewis, who needs to do more as a pass rusher but showed plenty of potential last year. He’ll be helped in pressuring the passer by Rick D’Abreu and Suirad Ware, both of whom served as high-value reserves last year and will step into starting roles this year. The interior is held down by a pair of returning starters in Immanuel Hickman and Elijah Morris.
Like their counterparts, neither is a superstar but both are solid. It’s a front seven filled with consistently solid play, but the top-end is fairly limited unless one of the younger members makes a star turn. If anyone will, it’ll probably be Hickman or Ware.
The secondary has a star of its own to replace with the departure of Ja’Quan McMillan. The Pirates didn’t take many big hits with offseason departures, but McMillan is a major one and will be very tricky to fill in for at cornerback. Malik Fleming started last year and can take over his top spot, though he wasn’t a lockdown coverage guy last year and will be tasked with being that this year, which is a tough ask. The other spot is probably Juan Powell’s or Damel Hickman’s – neither of whom played a huge role last year.
Jireh Wilson returns to lead the safety group, returning 43 tackles from last season, with junior part-time starter Shawn Dorseau stepping into a full-time job next to him this season. ECU needs front seven improvements because this group, while certainly not devoid of talent, is probably going to face some regression early in the season. Chances of this defense being among the league’s best are tremendously low, but an improvement to average would be enough to contend seriously for another 7-5 or 8-4 campaign.