2022 G5 Preview: San Diego State Is As It Was
Brady Hoke has the Aztecs right back into contention. But is the way SDSU plays enough to win a league title?
This is part of the Mountain West Preview, the fourth conference in the Outside Zone’s Group of Five season preview package. Check out the preview landing page for all previous stories. All previews and the entire Outside Zone archive are available for only $5 a month or $50 a year.
The framework for San Diego State football set by Brady Hoke and Rocky Long through the 2010s has been a success, unequivocally. The Aztecs have won 106 games while losing only 48 since 2010. They’re averaging nearly nine wins a season with only four losses in that span. They’ve been to 11 bowl games in 12 years and would be 12 for 12 had they not pulled out of bowl consideration after the COVID-addled 2020 campaign.
"Our guys have really been through a lot, I think more than any of us could imagine," Hoke said then. "They get to play a game they love, but with the uncertainty of being able to play in a bowl game we have made the decision that we will not play another game this season.
"I cannot tell you how proud I am of this team with what they have been through and the commitment they showed to one another. Many of them have not seen their parents since May and we want them to have an opportunity to go home."
Within the Mountain West, which has produced quite a bit of good football in the last decade-plus, San Diego State has claimed three league titles and three division titles (two of which came in league crown-winning seasons). It’s a damn good program, one of the most consistent in college football. And given where it was before Hoke and Long, to look too critically at this run of form is just asking too much.
Before 2010, the Aztecs had been to three bowl games. They’d won six conference titles – five from 1969-1974 and none since 1986. SDSU won 52 percent of its games from its jump up to the FBS ranks in 1969 to Hoke’s first season in 2009. It has won just under 70 percent since. The Aztecs have had more double-digit win seasons in the last seven years (five) than in their first 46 (four) in the FBS ranks.
The Don Coryell and Claude Gilbert years of the 70s yielded some of the best top-end teams in program history (namely 1969, 1972-73 and 76-77), but those seasons came in the now-defunct PCAA or as an independent. The Aztecs went 31 years (1978 to 2009) and six complete tenures between nine-win seasons, joining the WAC in 1978. They’ve had more winning seasons in the last 12 years (11) than they did in that entire 31-year run (10).
The greatest compliment of the Hoke/Long era is that most college football fans don’t remember San Diego State being destitute. They raised one of the most stable win-farms in the sport on soil that hadn’t yielded anything for three decades.
The second greatest compliment is that, despite all this success, it feels like San Diego State should have been able to do more in these last 12 years. The Aztecs have produced seven top 25 defenses (PPG) in the last eight years. Only three of those groups were complemented by a top 45 offense, and two of the three (2015, 2016) with that level of balance won conference titles. The other four – 2014, 2019, 2020, 2021 – were paired with the nation’s No. 92, 113, 94, and 78 offenses. The eighth-best defense in that time was 2018’s, which still ranked 32nd nationally. Its offense finished 120th, and the team went 7-6.
These are offenses, it bears mentioning, with plenty of talent. The Aztecs consistently recruit at the top of the league – first in 2021, second in 2018, 2014, 2013, and 2012, third in 2022, 2020, 2017, 2015, and 2011, fourth in 2016, and sixth in 2019 – and have produced 15 offensive draft picks since 2011 to just eight defenders. Vincent Brown was a third-round wideout in 2011, halfback Ronnie Hillman went in round three in 2012 (quarterback Ryan Lindley went three rounds later), TE Gavin Escobar was a second-rounder in 2014, halfback Donnel Pumphrey went in the fourth round in 2017, replacement Rashaad Penny went in the first a year later.
Hell, since 2010, the Aztecs have had three 3,000-yard passers and 11 1,000-yard rushers. Hillman rushed for 1,532 in 2010 and 1,711 in 2011; Adam Muema racked up 1,458 in 2012 and 1,244 in 2013; Pumphrey gained 1,867 in 2014, 1,653 in 2015 – next to Chase Price, who had 1,008 – and 2,133 in 2016; Penny went for 1,018 in 2016 and 2,248 in 2017; Greg Bell picked up 1,091 in 2021. Muema in 2013 (4.9 yards per carry) and Bell (4.5) are the only two of the 11 with yards per carry averages under 5.3.
The only seasons without a 1,000-yard rusher since 2010 were 2018, 2019, and 2020. The first saw Juwan Washington rush for 999 yards in nine games, the last happened in a pandemic, and 2019 featured four ball carriers with at least 350 yards.
This rich history of runners, the constant flow of talent into the program, and the draft results that can rival just about any G5 program have yielded one top 20 offense (2010, 19th), one top 30 offense (2016, 29th), one top 40 offense (2012, 36th) and three top 50 offenses (2011, 47th; 2015, 45th; 2017, 45th). The other six finished 59th, 92nd, 120th, 113th, 94th, and 78th. Three of those six offenses did that while still featuring a 1,000-yard rusher.
It’s fair to be a little frustrated with that. The 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2019 teams came up one game short of competing for a conference title, while the 2021 team made it to the championship game and promptly put up 13 points to Utah State’s 46.
The 2013 team lost to division-winning Fresno State in overtime, the 2014 bunch lost to the Bulldogs again to drop the tiebreaker, the 2017 team generated 17 total points in its pair of league losses, and the 2019 bunch scored 11, 13, and 17 points respectively in its three conference defeats. The 11 came against Hawaii, the eventual division winner, in a 14-11 game. San Diego State gave the No. 2 defense in America – a group that surrendered 12.7 points per game – 11 points of insurance in the de facto division title game.
It’s frustrating. And even though the 2021 season was SDSU’s first-ever 12-win season, the divide between defensive prowess and offensive haplessness is only growing. The last four defenses have allowed 18.1 points per game, but the offense is averaging just 23.5. The 2021 offense, which averaged 27.4 points per game and managed to score 23 or fewer points in six league games, was San Diego State’s best since 2017 by a large margin.
And no matter how optimistic the prognostication, it’s just hard to imagine any situation that sees that seriously changed this season. The Aztecs should be favored against eight or nine teams on their schedule, but a September road trip to Utah, a visit to Boise State two weeks later, a late October trip to Fresno State, and a season-ending home bout with Air Force are going to define the season.
Given the offensive firepower at Air Force and Fresno State, the experience at Boise State, and Utah’s status as a potential playoff contender, it seems like we can just about predict this San Diego State season in June. Nine or 10 wins, just short of a division crown, with heartbreaking losses in three or four of those big matchups because of an offensive letdown.
This is a far, far better existence than the one SDSU had before 2010, and there’s plenty to be said for being comfortable with “consistently very good” as your lot in life as a CFB team. But… there could be more here. Maybe there will be as the second Hoke tenure develops. He’s certainly recruiting at a high level and seems to have a good grasp on the portal (both in and out). The Aztecs even have a nice new stadium. But for 2022, with this roster? It’s hard not to slip into a malaise until SDSU provides a reason not to.
Leading the offense is Braxton Burmeister. That he was able to win the job outright in the spring over redshirt freshman Will Haskell is a positive, but that Haskell was the top competition for the job is deeply troubling. He’s thrown seven collegiate passes. Neither of last season’s starters, Lucas Johnson or Jordan Brookshire, showed much of any reason to consider their departures as harmful.
But Burmeister hasn’t offered much to be optimistic about. Serving as Virginia Tech’s starter last year, he completed 142 of 255 passes (55.7 percent) for 1,960 yards and 14 touchdowns with four interceptions. He’s a good athlete, rushing 117 times for 521 yards in 2021, but it’s hard to see what makes him any different from the Aztec quarterbacks who have preceded him. He throws a pretty nice deep ball and adds a dimension to the offense with his legs, but this is a passing attack that needs efficiency as much as it needs verticality and Burmeister has completed 56 percent of his career passes.
It’s hard not to be a little wistful about this spring’s move of Jalen Mayden from quarterback to safety. A former four-star prospect in 2018, Mayden transferred to SDSU from Mississippi State ahead of the 2021 season and brought at least some intrigue with him from his days as a prospect.
He promptly played in one game, against Utah State, completing five of his six passes for 50 yards and a touchdown while rushing four times for 36 yards. He told the San Diego Union-Tribune this spring that he was moving to safety because it was a quicker way to get on the field.
“I saw an opportunity there,” he said. “I thought with how athletic I am it would be a little quicker way to get on the field.”
Mayden has never played defense, but it seems that San Diego State has made it abundantly apparent that his path to the field there would be far clearer than the path to beating out this guy.
Wow, I wonder why these guys can’t score any points!
The running back room has Bell to replace but returns plenty of experience to do so. No. 2 halfback Chance Bell is back after rushing 72 times for 341 yards last year and has been considered a likely co-starter next to Jordan Byrd (37 carries, 246 yards) with Jaylon Armstead (24 carries, 75 yards) and 2021 three-star Cam Davis pushing for time.
There are three receivers to know here because San Diego State is allowed to throw to a maximum of three wide receivers per season. Last season’s leading receiver, Jess Matthews, is back after putting up 642 yards and nine scores on 57 receptions last season. Tyrell Shavers, a transfer from Mississippi State last season, found more and more work as the season went on, finished with 18 receptions for 213 yards, and projects as the starter opposite Matthews this year with last year’s No. 2, Elijah Kothe (31 receptions, 418 yards), departing.
Senior TJ Sullivan rounds out the group, stepping in for the departing BJ Busbee (23 receptions, 287 yards), although he’s a starter in name only. Most of SDSU’s formations will include just two receivers to leave space for either two halfbacks or two tight ends.
The tight end room has some work to do. Daniel Bellinger (31 receptions, 357 yards) is gone and there’s no obvious replacement to take over his spot. Jay Rudolph has experience as the blocking specialist and can stick in that role, but it seems Washington transfer Mark Redman will probably be tasked with stepping into a pass-catching role.
He’s a big, athletic target at 6-6, 250 pounds and came out of high school as a four-star prospect, but he has one catch to his name at this level. For those counting, that gives the infamously inaccurate and often frantic quarterback two (2) receiving targets with any serious college experience catching passes. Awesome. This is all very good.
Oh, and there are three starters to replace up front. Moving on.
The defense is just about intact. Four starters depart – chief among them ace edge rusher Cameron Thomas – but the talent and depth on this side of the ball is immense.
Up front, the Aztecs get a nice boost with the addition of Justus Tavai, who started last season at Hawaii and recorded 35 tackles with five TFL. He’ll slot in very nicely next to a pair of returning starters – end Keshawn Banks, who had 35 tackles and 11 TFL with five sacks last season; and brother Jonah Tavai, who can claim 47 tackles, 14 TFL, and 8.5 sacks a season ago.
There may not be a direct replacement for Thomas’ 20 TFL and 10.5 sacks, but SDSU can feel plenty comfortable with three potential All-MWC players up front.
Linebacker Caden McDonald returns to lead his group once again, having noted 49 tackles out of the MLB spot last year. There’s a family reunion here too, with brother Cooper McDonald joining the fold from Washington and likely stepping into a starting role of his own as Segun Olubi (52 tackles) departs. Cooper had 26 tackles and 5.5 TFL as a redshirt freshman in Seattle last year. Incumbent starter Michael Shawcroft rounds out the group in the OLB spot, returning 55 tackles and 6.5 TFL. Veteran Seyddrick Lakalaka (44 tackles) will have a major role to play as well.
Safety Patrick McMorris leads the secondary as maybe the league’s best safety, racking up 90 tackles and four interceptions out of the “Aztec" position last season. Starting field safety Cedarious Barfield (39 tackles) joins him in returning, with the boundary safety spot as the lone opening at the back of the defense as Tayler Hawkins (62 tackles) departs. That spot likely belongs to CJ Baskerville, who backed Hawkins up last year and picked up 38 tackles in only nine games.
There’s no real turmoil in the cornerback room – 2021 starters Dallas Branch (20 tackles) and Noah Tumblin (32 tackles) both return – but there is drama. Branch missed much of last season and Tumblin never fully established himself, leaving room for Noah Avinger and Dezjhon Malone to push for playing time. Avinger had 15 tackles in eight games as a freshman last year, while Malone has reportedly impressed in his redshirt sophomore spring. Branch still has to be considered the favorite over Malone, but don’t be surprised to see Avinger usurp Tumblin.