2022 G5 Preview: Sun Belt Power Rankings
The search for a Sun Belt middle class gets a boost from three new members.
This is the third of five conference power rankings this offseason, corresponding with my G5 preview series. Full team previews can be found underneath each team subhead, and also on this home page. Every preview, including the archives, is available for only $5 a month or $50 a year via the button below. If you’re already a subscriber or can’t swing the purchase but would like to support the newsletter, you can also hit the share button below.
As a reminder, the Outside Zone will be off for the next week, returning May 4 with the start of the Independents preview.
The Sun Belt’s transformation from bottomfeeders to the upper echelon of the Group of Five league ranks is just about complete. After flashing potential throughout the league and producing a pair of really good division champions in Appalachian State and Louisiana in 2019, the league made its move in 2020.
With several leagues delaying the start of their seasons to October and November, the Sun Belt took full advantage of a newfound spotlight, playing a full season and finding itself in more primetime opportunities than ever before (something had to fill those TV slots, after all). It can thank the pandemic for the extra eyes, but it can thank its own savvy for the staying power it showed off beyond that stretch of televised games.
The Sun Belt in 2020 wasn’t just available TV inventory. It was entertaining, compelling football with quite a few unique teams and players that held eyes through the season. First-year head coach Shawn Clark led Appalachian State to a 9-3 mark with a top 30 offense and defense for points per game, coming up short against exclusively good teams (but offering real tests to all three of them.)
Georgia State stumbled in a few spots but fielded an explosive and exciting offense around Cornelious Brown throwing the hell out of the football. In-state rival Georgia Southern butchered its option design and limited a Shai Werts-led offense because of it but still fielded a top 20 defense.
Atop the league, Louisiana obliterated Iowa State on the road to open the season and cracked into the top 25 by week three, returning to the poll by the middle of November after three straight victories before rattling off four more to finish the season at No. 15 behind a balanced rushing attack and a mean-as-hell defense.
Its lone demerit on the schedule came in an absolute heater against the team of the season – nationally, not just in the G5 – on Oct. 14, falling 30-27 to Coastal Carolina when Massimo Biscardi knocked in a 40-yard field goal with four seconds to play.
It was those Chanticleers who pushed the Sun Belt over the edge from “exciting but largely inconsequential sideshow” to “legitimately good as hell” in 2020. Jamey Chadwell’s triple-option worked to perfection, Coastal Carolina won 11 games in a row and played in some of the best games of the season against Appalachian State, Liberty, Louisiana, and Troy.
Oh, and they hosted the people’s championship on 72 hours’ notice against BYU – the best game of the year by a country mile and one of the only non-miserable events of the entire college football season. When Alabama put Ryan Day in a pine box a month later, we all would have been better suited retroactively naming Coastal Carolina-BYU the national title game and Coastal Carolina the champions.
The Sun Belt kept up its quality in 2021, for the most part. Louisiana showed up flat against Texas but was otherwise as advertised, Appalachian State took a step forward as it discovered a passing attack and Coastal Carolina rattled off 11 more wins.
But just as it did in 2020, the league struggled to find a fourth team to round out its top tier in 2021. And as it enters the 2022 campaign, that search has become increasingly important.
The American Athletic Conference is about to be dismantled by the Big 12 and will need several years to bounce back. The C-USA has died. The MAC seems to be stuck in the woods, still. The Mountain West is the Sun Belt’s top competition for G5 supremacy, and the Sun Belt just added four tremendously valuable programs in James Madison, Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Mississippi. If there has ever been a time for the Sun Belt to establish itself as the premier offering at this level, this is the season for it. But who takes the jump and balances out the league beyond its top three?
Tier Five
Undergoing a serious rebuild or on the verge of a firing.
Georgia Southern is going to be a fun thought experiment over the next few seasons. It hired Clay Helton after whisking away Chad Lunsford, as new athletic director Jared Benko looks to establish his own philosophy to modernize the program. His philosophy has no room for the triple option, which Georgia Southern has deployed almost exclusively since the early 1980s.
The thought experiment is such: Can a program that has only ever eaten shit when it goes away from the triple-option manage to not do that for the first time in its entire existence? Is Helton some sort of deity who can overcome the hex that Erk Russell put on this program to ensure its future as an option stalwart? Or is this obviously bad football coach going to do the same thing as Brian VanGorder in Statesboro, given that they’re the same guy with the same dumb ideas?
Dumb. Dumb program. Go to football jail and don’t come out until you know that what you did was wrong. Perpetually 14th until further notice.
James Blackman is a bright spot on the offense and has a decent corps of receivers to get the ball too, but this is very much a work in progress. He’ll be throwing behind an almost entirely new offensive line (this kid just cannot catch a break with his blocking) and Arkansas State couldn’t run the ball even a little bit last year.
The defense touts a strong pass-rushing unit led by All-Sun Belt second-team defensive end Kivon Bennett and tackles Terry Hampton, John Mincey, and Vidal Scott. But like the offense, one nice strength is overwhelmed by a major weakness, and here it’s the secondary. It wasn’t especially good last season and has three starters to replace this year.
As I said in the preview, Arkansas State gets Gambling State, ULM, and UMass at home, so it could improve by a win or two. But that feels like the ceiling.
12. ULM Warhawks
ULM will need to contend with the departure of offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez to the head coaching job at Jacksonville State, but returns a viable option at quarterback in Chandler Rogers and top halfback Andrew Henry, along with slot wideout Boogie Knight. The offense is without the top-end talent to beat better opponents but should be pretty stable under the guidance of Matt Kubik in his second stint as the program’s OC.
The defense is the real limiting factor for this bunch. Cornerbacks Josh Newton and Mark Williams appear to be returning to bolster a legitimately strong secondary but will be without any sort of help up front, as the defensive line has been decimated by departures. There may be four wins on the schedule if everything goes about as well as possible.
Tier Four
Some shot at a bowl game, some fun players, but not good enough to make real noise.
It’s probably now or never for Jake Spavital in San Marcos and he’s built accordingly. The Bobcats went out and grabbed Arkansas State transplant Layne Hatcher at quarterback in hopes that he can be the Will Grier that Spavital has spent so much time searching for since departing West Virginia and are surrounding him with big, athletic receivers. That worked for him in Jonesboro and fits well into Spavital’s system.
Borderline elite edge rusher Issiah Nixon returns opposite Jordan Revels, who leads the team’s run-stuffing efforts. The Bobcats have a pair of tackles to replace between them and are generally without easy answers behind the line. If this unit can hover around the top 100 and the offense can make the leap that it has seemed prepared to make for several years now, it may be enough to earn a bowl bid and save Spavital’s job.
Still, that likely requires wins over Arkansas State, FIU, Houston Baptist, Nevada, Southern Miss, and ULM. Not impossible, but not fun by any means.
10. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Southern Miss returns one of the best skill players in the league with halfback Frank Gore Jr., and has a very strong WR1 in Jason Brownlee, but faces the same problem that it did last: someone needs to play quarterback.
Last season, the best answer at QB was Gore, who served as a wildcat quarterback in the final three games of the season. He went 2-1 and led the offense to 29.7 points per game – almost 20 points better than its 10.8 average against the other eight FBS opponents on the schedule. This season, it seems youngster Ty Keyes may get the nod. He played poorly last season but remains an unknown commodity outside of that locker room.
The defense is packed with transfers on the line but returns three starters at linebacker and five in the secondary. The pass rush on defense and the passing game on offense will be issues, but the rest of the team should be experienced and talented enough to win some games without turning to a halfback behind center. A 5-7 season would be a step in the right direction and feels within reach if Keyes is capable.
Tier Three
Intriguing, but not likely to compete for a title without a few players or coaches seriously exceeding expectations.
It’s never easy to project a roster leaping the FCS ranks to the FBS level, but James Madison certainly offers a lot to be excited about as it makes the move. The Dukes were a serious contender for the last decade, going 101-28 and racking up a winning percentage better than that of even Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern. All three of those programs made a successful transition to the Sun Belt with almost no drop-off. The league is better now, but it can be done.
How much Curt Cignetti can do this season is going to depend heavily on the replacement of Cole Johnson at quarterback and the retooling of the receiver room for the quarterback who does take over the job. Colorado State transfer Todd Centeio seems the likely pick, but he and wide receivers Terrance Greene Jr. (Monmouth transfer) and Kobay White (Boston College transfer) will be asked to do quite a bit in their first years in town. Kris Thornton rounds out the room in the slot and offers some stability.
Outside of the departures of two starting cornerbacks in Taurus Carroll and Greg Ross, the defensive starting group is almost completely intact and should keep JMU afloat even if the offense goes through some growing pains. The depth in the Eat is such that James Madison may very well be a bowl team while checking in as the fifth or sixth best team in its division.
Old Dominion found the spark that it was looking for last season when, in the back half of the season, it passed the sticks at quarterback to Hayden Wulff. He went 5-1 after the team’s midseason off week and 5-2 overall, taking it from the brink of disaster to bowl eligibility. He returns, as does nearly the entire offense that rallied around him last season.
The defense has a bit of attrition to face in the secondary, but like the offense, its core is largely intact. The Monarchs arrived a bit early in making a bowl game last season and may suffer a bit of disappointment this season because the schedule isn’t likely to allow them beyond seven or eight wins, but this is a bowl team barring any major incidents.
Tier Two
Teams that can win a title if they find suitable answers for one or two major questions.
7. Troy Trojans
Troy was some competent coaching away from being a bowl team during the entire Chip Lindsey tenure. It fired Lindsey and hired a seemingly competent coaching staff headed up by former Kentucky co-defensive coordinator Jon Sumrall, which means… the Trojans are probably bowling this year.
They may even be able to improve beyond that and into the upper tier of the East division if development at quarterback with Gunnar Watson breaks the right way. Sumrall has nine defensive starters returning to build his system around, including a great CB1 in Reddy Steward, an elite run-stuffing linebacker in Carlton Martial, and a quartet of great linemen in tackles Will Choloh and Luis Medina and bandits Richard Jibunor and Javon Solomon.
If the offense is just decent, this defense could very well be one of the G5’s best and would put Troy in contention in just about every game it plays this season.
South Alabama fizzled down the stretch after a very hot start to Kane Wommack’s tenure as head coach, but the stock here is still high. The Jaguars return a capable halfback in Terrion Avery, Jalen Wayne at wide receiver, and four starters on the offensive line to help out either incumbent backup Desmond Trotter or Toldeo transfer Carter Bradley in replacing Jake Bentley at quarterback.
Wommack’s unit has more pieces to replace – namely linebacker Jamal Brooks, cornerback contributors Davyn Flenord, Kwameh Lewis, and Devin Rockette, and starting safety Tre Young – but is filled with intriguing talent. Darrell Luter Jr. is the league’s best cornerback and Yam Banks is a great slot corner, while Gi'Narious Johnson and Wy'Kevious Thomas make for a great pairing at tackle.
It’s hard to split the Jags and Trojans, but the good news is that we won’t need to do so in the hypothetical space for very long. They’ll square off in Mobile on Oct. 20 to all but decide Louisiana’s top competition in the West. Given that Wommack’s squad gets the Ragin Cajuns on Oct. 1, a win in that matchup would likely put them in the driver’s seat. A loss likely dooms them to third-place – but they can take solace in being almost assured a bowl berth
Marshall lands at No. 5 for the talent on its roster, not its outlook based on returning production – because there’s a whole lot of red there. The Thundering Herd have a starting quarterback, wideout, tight end, three offensive linemen, both defensive tackles, a cornerback, and both safeties to replace – not ideal for a staff that seemingly underachieved in year one.
But, talent is talent, and Marshall still has plenty of it. Freshman All-American Rasheen Ali might be the best halfback in the league, Corey Gammage is a fabulous option at wide receiver and quarterback Henry Colombi, a Texas Tech transfer, has shown at least some ability before his arrival this offseason.
The defense touts a trio of very solid ends in Elijah Alston, Koby Cumberlander, and Owen Porter, two great linebackers in Abraham Beauplan and Eli Neal, returning starter Micah Abraham at cornerback, and an experienced E.J. Jackson at safety. It’ll depend heavily on several defensive transfers, largely at tackle and in the secondary, but the potential is certainly here for a return to form. Few teams in the league have more pure ability, but Marshall is facing similar attrition to those at the top of the league, and it hasn’t yet proven itself willing of being listed alongside those three. So, it stays in the tier below until it does.
Tier One
The best of the best. Very few if any questions, should be favorites in every league game they play except for their head-to-head matchup.
It’s risky to bump Georgia State into the top tier, given its status as a class below in each of the last two seasons, but the returning production and talent here is such that the Panthers seem to be deserving.
They were excellent down the stretch behind the arm of Darren Grainger and the legs of Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams. All three return to what will be one of the league’s best backfields. Sam Pinckney will need replacing out wide, but Grainger has three of his favorite targets back in Ja'Cyais Credle, Terrance Dixon, and Jamari Thrash, as well as tight end Aubry Payne and four starters on the offensive line.
The defense has a pair of defensive ends to replace, along with safety Chris Moore and very strong tackle Dontae Wilson but that’s all. Tre Moore and Jamil Muhammad look ready to take over in bookending the line, Jacorey Crawford and Jontrey Hunter both saw plenty of time behind Moore last season (and starter Antavious Lane returns in the other safety spot) and Jeffery Clark should be ready to go at tackle.
For a staff that has always seemed to be one piece away from a breakthrough, everything is aligned this season to finally make that jump into the top four. The Panthers will need to grab at least tough road wins against Appalachian State, James Madison, or Marshall to make a serious push for the crown, though they get Coastal Carolina at home and have a tremendous;y friendly draw from the West: Southern Miss and ULM.
3. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Grayson McCall is the reason for the positioning here. He’s just about the only reason. Coastal Carolina has eight offensive and seven defensive starters to replace and would be into tier two were it not for the things I’ve seen McCall do since he took over as the starting quarterback in Conway. Regardless of the pieces around him, he will win a lot of football games.
But those pieces are going to set the ceiling. Coastal Carolina has been excellent on the recruiting trail in the last two years and will need that to show on the field this season with so much of the depth chart depleted. There’s plenty of young talent to be excited about – Josaiah Stewart was a monster at defensive end as a true freshman, and JT Killen looks like the next great CCU linebacker – but Chadwell has his hands full in his first retooling since Coastal’s breakthrough.
The defending champions have plenty to replace, including head coach Billy Napier, but provided ample snaps to nearly 50 players last season and can lean on a deeper roster than anyone else in the league. Finding a new quarterback is going to be the biggest step.
The rest of the team looks ready to hold court, though. Chris Smith leads the rushing attack, plenty of talented receivers return, Zi'Yon Hill and Andre Jones lead an athletic defensive line, and new coordinator LaMar Morgan has about a million young defensive backs to choose from in replacing safety Percy Butler and cornerback Mekhi Williams-Garner.
Louisiana dips to No. 2 in the rankings because of its losses at quarterback and head coach, but the talent here is still strong enough to repeat as champions and to establish the Ragin Cajuns as strong favorites to come out of the West.
1. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Three new starters in the secondary, two at linebacker, and four major departures from the wide receiver ranks keep the Mountaineers from being a slam dunk pick atop the league, though they still claim the top spot with the best combination of returning production and talent.
Chase Brice brought a new dimension to the offense at quarterback and should help to bring a new-look receiver group along. Nate Noel, Daetrich Harrington, and Camerun Peoples are all strong out of the backfield, and they have four returning starters on the line to work behind. Nick Hampton is the best pass rusher in the league. Cornerback Steven Jones Jr. was a first-team pick in 2021.
If the league goes chalk, Appalachian State will raise the title trophy at the end of the season. An Oct. 19 home bout against Georgia State and consecutive road trips to Coastal Carolina on Nov. 3 and Marshall on Nov. 12 for ASU will define the division.