This is part of the American Athletic Conference Preview, the final conference in the Outside Zone’s Group of Five season preview package. Check out the preview landing page for all previous stories.
What is there to say about Cincinnati’s 2021 season that hasn’t been said? It was a dream season – the kind you see maybe once in a lifetime. The Bearcats came from behind to knock off Indiana in week three, turned around and bludgeoned Notre Dame in front of Touchdown Jesus himself in week four. They tore through the AAC, pulling out tight wins against Navy and Tulsa while thrashing just about everybody else in their path.
Cincinnati met all of its toughest challenges with aplomb. It held the electric SMU offense to 14 points, kept Houston underwater for all four quarters of the AAC title game and earned the G5’s first-ever bid to the College Football Playoff. It should have never taken this long, but the fact remains that Cincinnati did what no G5 team before has been able to do. A loss to Alabama in the playoff that was far more competitive than the final score indicates does very little to dampen the season that Luke Fickell and his squad were able to put together.
The reward, along with that playoff berth and a league crown, is a jump into the big leagues. This year will be Cincinnati’s last as a member of the G5 as it prepares for a move into the Big 12 ahead of the 2023 season, joined by conference-mates Houston and UCF and independent BYU.
For all of this, Fickell’s Bearcats have earned a victory lap. They sent a huge chunk of last year’s starting lineup to the NFL, with nine Cincinnati products hearing their names called for the draft back in April. Sauce Gardner was the No. 4 overall pick, four players earned a day two nod – including quarterback Desmond Ridder – and another four slipped into day three, all within the first six rounds. Only Georgia and LSU had more players drafted, and LSU did it by only one player.
This is the traditional recipe for a retooling year. Cincinnati has new faces in the starting lineup at quarterback, running back, all two wideout spots, four of the front six spaces defensively and in three of five secondary roles. Last year’s leaders for passing, rushing, two of the top four for receiving and seven of the top 12 tacklers are gone.
Among that group, Cincinnati loses one of its all-time great quarterbacks in Ridder; a 1,300-yard, 19-TD halfback in Jerome Ford; 80 receptions and 1,237 yards combined from Alec Pierce and Michael Young; sacks leader Curtis Brooks; top edge rusher Myjai Sanders; ultra-reliable linebackers Darrian Beavers and Joel Dublanko; the Thorpe Award winner, Coby Bryant; the cornerback who was even better than Bryant in Gardner; and a great safety in Bryan Cook. It’s a lot. There’s not any other way to put it.
Yet, as Cincinnati sits on the precipice of the 2022 campaign, it’s hard not to have a sense of optimism about what Fickell and his staff can produce – even with so much to replace. The Bearcats have been phenomenal on the recruiting trail for years, landing the top recruiting class in the AAC in 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2018, while taking second in 2019 – the five classes that make up just about the entirety of the sport now.
Their average class rating over this time is 190.04, nearly 14 points clear of the next best average in the league, which is UCF at 176.38. Memphis is the only other team in the league above 170 (172.86), while Houston (166.96), SMU (162.49) and Tulane (160.34) round out the top six.
In total composite points, Cincinnati is ahead of UCF by almost 70 points, 950.22-881.90, and Memphis is the only other school in the conference within 100 points (864.32). The Bearcats landed each of the four-highest rated classes the AAC has seen since 2018, each of which checked in above 190. No other AAC class in the last five years has gone beyond the 180s, and only four have been in the 180s (all four of which belong to different programs).
Obviously, these classes aren’t represented in full on these current rosters, but the conclusion here is easy to make. Major attrition or not, Cincinnati is just that much more talented than the rest of the league. And entering 2022, it’s the same story.
Taking over for Ridder is Eastern Michigan transfer Ben Bryant. Bryant began his career at Cincinnati and essentially went out on loan to the Eagles, throwing for 3,121 yards and 14 touchdowns to seven interceptions on a 68.4 percent completion rate last season. He’s a very capable quarterback who will command this system well, even if he’s probably not going to match the efforts of his predecessor.
Highly touted sophomore Evan Prater could have a go at quarterback as well – although it feels unlikely that Cincinnati would bring the veteran Bryant back for one season only to give the job to the incumbent backup to Ridder. It’s far more likely that Prater will lead the Bearcats into the Big 12 as a first-year starter next season.
Pierce and Young depart from the wide receiver room, leaving space for Tyler Scott, Tre Tucker, and a currently unestablished third to take over larger roles. Scott had 30 receptions for 520 yards and five scores last year, working in the same aerial threat role he’ll fill this season; Tucker had 34 receptions for 426 yards and two scores. He was the top slot option in 2021, and there’s no good reason to mess with that coming into 2022.
Entering the offseason, the other spot on the outside was Jadon Thompson’s to lose after turning 14 receptions into 208 yards as a reserve last season, but he’s not without competition. Nick Mardner transferred into the program from Hawaii, bringing with him 46 receptions, 913 yards and five touchdowns. He’ll be very difficult to beat, and youngster Chris Scott is likely in for some snaps off the bench as well. Thompson isn’t at risk of being squeezed out, though he does need to prove himself capable through fall camp to avoid falling behind.
Ford’s replacement at halfback is basically an exact copy, at least in their backgrounds. Ford signed with a powerhouse in the SEC as a blue-chipper coming out of high school. He saw a decent chunk of snaps early in his career before deciding to transfer over to Cincinnati, where he spent two seasons as a top contributor. The new face in the starting role at halfback is Corey Kiner.
Kiner signed with LSU as a blue-chipper coming out of high school, rushed 79 times for 324 yards and two touchdowns in his freshman campaign for the Tigers, ultimately deciding this offseason to transfer away from LSU, returning home to Cincinnati. Kiner has seen more snaps coming into UC than Ford did, and he has the added benefit of growing up in Cincinnati, but the idea behind bringing in either player was just about identical.
It’s quite a bit to ask of a second-year player to match the efforts Ford produced in 2021, and likely isn’t fair when projecting Kiner’s first season on campus. He’ll probably share at least some snaps with Ryan Montgomery as he continues to acclimate to the college game, and it would be very hard to rack up 1,300 yards with a significant rep share. However, on sheer talent? The margins between Ford and Kiner are marginal at best. Kiner may very well end up the better of the two by the time he’s done at UC, even if this first season sees him suffer through some growing pains.
The LSU transfer is walking into quite the situation here when it comes to help up front, too. Cincinnati brings back all five starters from a very strong offensive line – a huge help for an offense breaking in so many new faces. Tight end pairing Josh Whyle and Leonard Taylor return as well to add some stability to both the blocking game and the skill corps. They teamed up for 54 receptions, 600 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. There may be some regression offensively, but it won’t be anywhere near as stark as some may expect. This is still a very capable offense.
It would be far easier to worry about the defense if not for the presence of Fickell and defensive coordinator Mike Tressel. There are very few staffs in the sport better at identifying, developing and deploying defensive talent than Cincinnati, and the Bearcats have a metric ton of encouraging options in the two-deep, even with so much proven talent to replace.
On the three-man line, Malik Vann leads the charge. Working as a defensive end, he had 33 tackles, 8.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks last season. Vann doesn’t look like a traditional rush end, checking in at 6-4, 275 pounds, but he had more sacks and TFL in nine starts than Sanders had all season. He’s much better than he gets credit for.
Brooks’ tackle spot is Jowon Briggs’ to lose. A former blue-chipper who signed originally with Virginia, Briggs started five of the last six games of the 2021 campaign, picking up 42 tackles, four TFL and three sacks. He may not be as well-known as Brooks, but he’s every bit as good. He may be even better.
The other end opening is a bit of a question, with Jabari Taylor looking like the favorite to take over for Sanders. He was a rotational player in every game, picking up 29 tackles, 5.5 TFL and two sacks. Listed as 6-1, 280 pounds, he’s more of a run-stuffer than he is a pass-rusher, but he’ll do both this season on what has to be the biggest defensive line in the conference. For it to also be this athletic is, frankly, unfair. Say what you will about attrition in the front six – this line is better than last season’s. It just is.
You can’t say the same about the linebackers, though this room certainly isn’t devoid of talent. Ty Van Fossen returns after picking up 70 tackles last season, with four very strong options to fill the other two linebacker spots.
Leading that group is Deshawn Pace, a de facto starter last season who made 95 tackles, 9.5 TFL and snared four interceptions as an overhanging zone defender in the middle of the field who made every RPO with a slant option a living hell for quarterbacks. His brother Ivan joins him, transferring over after an All-MAC season at Miami (Ohio) that saw him record 125 tackles, 13 TFL and four sacks.
Next up is Wilson Huber, the largest of the bunch at 6-5, 250. A converted tight end, Huber is probably the least-established option, bringing over only 13 tackles from last year, but his ceiling is still so high. He had four TFL and three sacks in limited playing time last year and could be this season’s version of Beavers – a throwback who can do a ton of damage as one of two designated blitzers that UC deploys on nearly every play.
Jaheim Thomas, another former blue-chip prospect, is cut from the same cloth. He’s 6-4, 245 pounds and offered up 23 tackles in his first significant playing time last season. A group that sees the Pace brothers as the overhang linebackers and a Huber/Thomas pairing as the rushing linebackers would leave no room for Van Fossen, but it would be really, really damn good.
More likely, though, is a Thomas/Ivan Pace Jr. rush pairing that rotates Huber in, with Van Fossen and Deshawn Pace backing them up. This is technically a five-defensive back system, but the incumbent Pace is only 215 pounds and can play an almost identical role to the one that 6-1, 208-pound Cook filled last year. Cook was technically a safety, though he spent enough time in the box to qualify for linebacker status.
The true secondary is the only part of the defense with serious questions to answer. Gardner was the best cornerback in college football and Bryant was good enough to win the Thorpe. No amount of internal development is going to be able to match that from the jump.
It looks like Justin Harris and Taj Ward will get the first crack at stepping in. Harris missed almost all of last season with an injury, though he contributed plenty as a reserve in 2020 and 2019. Now a senior, he’s unproven but has the benefit of four years in the program.
Ward played in 11 games and made one start last season. He’s also unproven, but he’s been in the program even longer – this is year No. 5 for the Solon, Ohio native.
If those two don’t work out, fellow senior Ja’quan Sheppard or sophomore Todd Bumphis could step in. Both played sparingly as reserves last season – although Sheppard is more of a safety than he is a cornerback. Bumphis has the talent to do it, but he’s only a redshirt sophomore and would need to make a big jump to take on starting responsibilities.
There’s always Arquon Bush if Cincinnati can’t find a suitable answer outside. Bush is a nickelback by trade and would be best filling that spot as he did last season. He’s also 6-0 and nearly 200 pounds, meaning that moving outside wouldn’t be impossible. Just annoying. If he moved, Sammy Anderson Jr. would take over in the slot.
With Pace filling the hybrid safety spot, Cincinnati only needs to find one full-time starter in the back-end, and Ja’von Hicks returns to take that on after filling out a starting role last year. His talent isn’t up for question. His ability as a leader is going to be tested early and often with a new-look group. The other spot is Jacob Dingle’s, likely in a part-time capacity when Cincinnati wants five true pass defenders in the back-end.
It’s going to look different, and there will almost certainly be at least some attrition. That’s still not enough to knock Cincinnati off its perch as the AAC favorite. If the Bearcats can pull together to beat Arkansas on the road in week one, they’d be a pair of consecutive tricky road trips to SMU and UCF away from another unbeaten regular season – and a potential date with Houston, which could also be unbeaten, in the title game. A playoff spot for the winner in that hypothetical is probably unrealistic, even if it really shouldn’t be.