2022 G5 Preview: UNLV Is Closer Than It Appears
The Rebels went 2-10 in 2021, but the underlying stats tell a friendlier story.
This is part of the Mountain West Preview, the fourth conference in the Outside Zone’s Group of Five season preview package. Check out the preview landing page for all previous stories. All previews and the entire Outside Zone archive are available for only $5 a month or $50 a year.
Marcus Arroyo’s 2-16 record at UNLV does not inspire much confidence. Entering his third season at the helm of what may be the Mountain West’s most snakebitten program, the former Oregon offensive coordinator probably isn’t pointing to the results in the win column when pitching his vision to boosters and athletic department officials who, despite his record, brought him back for another season after a 2-10 mark in 2021.
If that’s the only measurement, there’s very little to be optimistic about in Las Vegas. The Rebels haven’t been to a bowl game since 2013, and the struggles of the Tony Sanchez era have seemingly only grown under Arroyo. Sanchez was fired after going 20-40 in five seasons. His successor is on pace for a far worse mark at this point.
The win-loss total isn’t the only measure, though. And UNLV isn’t without a historical context that inspires patience with its coaching staffs – the next coach who succeeds at the FBS level with the Rebels will be the first. It would take a whole lot to be pushed aside for two bad seasons here, regardless of how bad those seasons were.
And on those measurements outside of the final record book, Arroyo’s progress is apparent. It’s slow, and it needs to turn into production on the field sooner than later, but it’s there.
Take UNLV’s recruiting as an example. Sanchez was hired from nearby high school power Bishop Gorman because UNLV hoped he could better connect with talented players in the area – which predecessor Bobby Hauck couldn’t ultimately leading to his departure. Yet, in his final three recruiting classes (2017-19), the Rebels landed the 11th, 8th and 8th ranked classes in the MWC respectively. They had an average playing rating of 79.76 and an average class rating of 126.32 (both of these numbers are extremely bad). The talent acquisition hire wasn’t acquiring enough talent, and the roster Arroyo inherited was proof positive.
In Arroyo’s first three classes at the helm (including the 2020 class, which he had two months to finish after being hired in December of 2019), the Rebels have seen a distinct up-turn in talent. The 2020 class finished second in the MWC, 2021 was third. The 2022 bunch checked in at No. 9, but a huge class of transfers isn’t factored in there. His groups are averaging an 82.72 player rating and a 147.17 class rating.
UNLV signed a pair of top 1,000 recruits in 2020 with defensive ends LeShaun Ball and Brennon Scott, the latter of which was a top 500 player. It added a trio of P5 transfers, too – two of whom (USC OT Clayton Bradley and TCU QB Justin Rogers) were former four-stars. The third, DE Adam Plant Jr., was a well-thought-of three-star.
It added two more top 1,00 recruits in 2021, along with six transfers (five from the P5 ranks), and kept the momentum up in 2022 at the top of the class, grabbing top 1,000 wideout Randy Masters and top 1,000 QB Jayden Maiava along with nearly a dozen transfers – four from the P5 ranks, three JUCO products, two FCS players and one player apiece from the G5 and DII levels.
Arroyo was hired more for his energy and the offense he directed at Oregon than he was for his recruiting acumen. That he has pulled in as much talent as he has is a plus large enough to balance out the biggest issue his tenure has faced thus far: the offense he was hired for has been bad, and the defense has been worse.
The talent deficit he inherited and the work he’s done on the trail provide an easy sell for optimism heading into this season. These strong recruiting classes are now the bulk of the program. The players UNLV will lean on this season are largely Arroyo recruits.
But that selling point has an expiration date. Arroyo and his staff have revitalized the roster and can realistically claim ownership of a more talented group than at least half of the teams in the Mountain West. The Rebels were fourth within the MWC in 247Sports team talent last season and probably take another step with another Arroyo class coming in and that 2018 class largely washing out.
Now, they need those recruiting victories to start winning some games. As Arroyo said after UNLV’s season-ending loss to Air Force, it’s bowl season.
“We’re really adamant about guys decompressing and taking time off and getting their bodies back, getting their minds back,” Arroyo said. “But I also tell them, ‘Don’t plan on having a bunch of time next season. Next season, it’s bowl season. Let’s roll.’ ”
How close the Rebels are to achieving that goal depends on perspective. Their primary stats from 2021 are not encouraging, nor is much of the play they put on tape. This was the 112th offense in the country for points per game and the No. 107 defense. They mustered just over 100 rushing yards per game despite a very good (and now departing) Charles Williams at halfback, while the passing attack cycled through three options at quarterback without finding one who could reliably make plays through the air without throwing interceptions (14 combined interceptions to 11 touchdowns).
No part of the defense was good enough to build an identity around, and many of the best offenses on the schedule did essentially anything they wanted to. They allowed at least 35 points six times.
But underneath those stats, there is positivity to be gleaned. UNLV suffered six one-score losses, four of which came against legitimately very good teams in Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State, and UTSA.
The Rebels led Fresno State with fewer than five minutes to play, had a bid to tie the game against SDSU cut short in the final two minutes by an interception, led MWC winner Utah State with less than a minute to play, and came within 36 yards of sending the game against C-USA winner UTSA to overtime. In the other two, UNLV entered the fourth quarter against San Jose State with the lead and lost to Eastern Washington in overtime because of a failed two-point try.
Winning close games is parting of being a strong football program, but to be in those games against strong opponents is encouraging in its own right. The step from “being in games against good teams” to “winning games against good teams” is one that has doomed hundreds of coaching tenures, but to be positioned to take the step at all is something to form optimism around.
There are reasons to be excited about the roster slated to return, too.
Atop the offense, UNLV has a trio of options to choose from. Rogers is again in the portal, but he struggled more than either of his position-mates last season and wasn’t likely to claim the job this season after losing it last year. In his wake, the quarterback battle will be fought among Doug Brumfield, Cameron Friel, and Tennessee transfer Harrison Bailey.
All three have a case.
Brumfield started only twice last season and showed off plenty of the upside he was recruited. He has a big arm at 6-5, 225, and runs exceptionally well – he carried 19 times for 109 yards and two scores in 2021. No one showed a higher ceiling at quarterback last season, but he also completed only 17 of 39 passes for 320 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
He considered a transfer this offseason but ultimately returned, so it’s obvious that the coaching staff is high on him. If UNLV feels confident enough in its line play and receivers to toss out a quarterback who will deal with growing pains in what is essentially a must-win season, Brumfield has the largest potential reward of the trio. He’s the riskiest, too.
Friel is the safe pick. He started eight games and finished the season leading the charge after Brumfield suffered an injury and Rogers struggled. He threw far too many interceptions (11) with just six touchdowns, but he completed 62.4 percent of his passes – easily the best on the team and UNLV’s highest completion rate from its leading passer since 2013.
However, nearly 20 percent of his passes were screens, and his 7.1 yards per attempt leaves a lot to be desired. There’s no obvious deep threat on this roster, but the quarterback should probably be able to at least threaten to go down the field. Friel really didn’t in 2021.
Bailey has been the assumed favorite since he departed from Tennessee, but can’t be penciled in quite yet. A former top 100 recruit, Bailey is the purest passer of the bunch and was impressive in limited 2020 snaps, completing 48 of 68 passes for 578 yards with four touchdowns to two interceptions.
But, the Vols kept things very very simple for him in that stint and turned to Hendon Hooker in 2021 rather than sticking with Bailey. We can assume that he’s a better passer than Brumfield – seemingly his primary competition – off of his recruiting profile, but we know he can’t run like the incumbent and neither of the two has much in the way of sample size at the college level. Bailey can still be considered the favorite at this point, but it’s not a slam dunk as previously thought.
The winner of the battle at quarterback will have some help in the skill rooms and up front, although there certainly isn’t an abundance of proven talent. Williams’ departure at halfback leaves the room without any obvious starting option.
Chad Magyar was his primary backup last season but carried only 13 times for 45 yards, and is seriously lacking in the speed department. Oregon transfer Jayvaun Wilson merited hype when he signed with the Rebels in 2021 but carried only seven times for 29 yards last season. The new face is Aidan Robbins, a 6-3, 230-pounder from Louisville with almost zero college experience but a strong, athletic frame.
The wideout room is in better shape. Top target Steve Jenkins (46 receptions, 694 yards, 4 TDs) departs, but No. 2 option Kyle Williams (42 receptions, 601 yards, 2 TDs) returns, as does Zyell Griffin (11 receptions, 223 yards, 2 TDs) who flashed a lot of ability but needs to work on holding onto the football. Former Indiana transfer Jordan Jakes caught only five passes last season but he’s 6-5 and is likely in for a larger role this season.
Much of the intrigue here comes from a trio of transfers: Senika McKie, Jeff Weimer, and Ricky White. McKie has 96 receptions, 1,133 yards, and seven touchdowns for DII Eskrine College last season, Weimer had 75 receptions, 1,253 yards, and 17 TDs at the JUCO ranks and White is a former borderline top 400 player, best known from his time at Michigan State for demolishing Michigan in 2020 and then completely disappearing.
Starting tight end Giovanni Fauolo Sr. is gone, but backup Shelton Zeon III was encouraging when healthy and is a better blocker.
Just about the entire offensive line returns. It was frequently bad last season, so take from that what you may, but it does return. Left tackle Daviyon McDaniel, right tackler Tiger Shanks, right guard Amani Trigg-Wright and center Leif Fautanu are all back, and McDaniel’s former Charleston Southern teammate Preston Nichols is here to round out the group. A true tackle (and a very good one at that), Nichols likely takes over for McDaniel, who played some guard last season and can kick into the vacancy at left guard.
The defense has a new coordinator in Keith Heyward – a longtime Pac-12 assistant – and returning production at all three levels. Defensive end Kylan Wilborn, tackle Kolo Uasike, linebacker Jacoby Windmon, cornerback Aaron Lewis and safety Bryce Jackson, all of whom started at least half of the season, are on their way out, though the trio in the back seven was quite a bit more productive than the two linemen.
Windmon’s 119 tackles were a little more reflective of the players around him than they were of him, but they were enough to earn him a transfer spot at Michigan State. Lewis was a three-year starter at cornerback and a valuable part of the run defense, though he struggled in coverage. Jackson was a four-year contributor who could do a little bit of everything and may be the most damaging departure on the defense.
But save for a few rarely used reserves, the rest of the defensive two-deep returns.
On the defensive line, those recruiting wins will be tested. Plant returns after starting last season and Scott looks set to step into the spot opposite him after starting eight of the last nine games last season and racking up 10 TFL with four sacks. Bell returns as well after starting the first three games of 2021 but missing much of the season. Add in Nick Dimitris, a top 600 recruit in 2021 who redshirted as a freshman, and Missouri State transfer Isaiah Sayles, and you have one of the most talented defensive end rooms in the conference. Talent and production aren’t always equal, though.
Uasike will be missed more than Wilborn, but there are replacements here too. Pass rushing specialist Eliel Ehimare was last season’s starting 3-tech and returns in that role, while one of Naki Fahina, Tavis Malakius, or Waisale Muavesi will need to step up next to him. None stood out last season, and if no one emerges this year, the job may belong instead to JUCO signee Darius Johnson.
The linebacker room is easy. Austin Ajiake started the first eight games of the 2021 season and looked very good for a first-year starter, while Kyle Beaudry stepped in for the last four games after Ajiake got hurt. Ajiake is the better athlete of the two, but Beaudry’s ability as a tackler is valuable. JUCO linebacker Fred Thompkins could play a role here too.
Even with a pair of departures, the secondary seems to be just about set too. True freshman Cameron Oliver looked very good as a starter in the slot and can fill that role again, while Nohl Williams was the best outside cornerback on the team a season ago and will benefit from more playing time after starting just eight games in 2021. Ricky Johnson seems to be the easy pick to start in the other cornerback spot – he started only two games but played in nine and might be the best pure coverage cornerback here.
Neither Phillip Hill nor Tyson Player was impressive at safety last season, but both played plenty and have a pretty large advantage over the youngsters gunning for their starting jobs. Player slides from a part-time role into the starting spot next to Hill, an incumbent.
The outlook here is fairly positive, relative to last season’s 2-10 record. UNLV has a nice combination of young talent and veteran experience and seems closer to establishing an identity than it has been in quite some time. If the quarterback room can produce a competent starter, wins over Idaho State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, and San Jose State feel realistic. Finding a sixth win is going to take some doing, though.
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