Game Preview: Arkansas State Can Beat Memphis
Or at least cover, which is basically just as good.
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Arkansas State and Memphis are mirror images of one another as programs in a lot of ways. Both are in a prime location for recruiting given the glut of talent in the Southeastern part of the country and both lean heavily into that footprint. Since the class 2017, Memphis has landed 79 percent of its recruits from within the Southeastern region (defined as AK, AL, FL, GA, KY, LA, MO, MS, NC, SC and TN). Arkansas State sits at 65 percent.
Arkansas State hits the JuCo route harder and recruits as a significantly lower level than Memphis does due to differences in conference and program prestige, but the makeup of these teams, purely in terms of where coaches are looking for talent, is pretty much the same, as you could say for quite a few teams in the region. The way these programs have been built is pretty much the same as well.
Both sprouted up quickly after decades of mediocrity. Memphis did so in four years under Justin Fuente starting in 2012, rising from 2-10 the year prior to his arrival to 9-4 when he handed the job off to Mike Norvell after 2015. Arkansas State saw its rise under three massive hits in hiring in three consecutive years, firing Steve Roberts after 2010 following nine seasons of being perfectly average.
The first hire, Hugh Freeze, went 10-3 in his first season and immediately skipped town. Gus Malzahn went 9-3 the next year and then followed suit. Bryan Harsin only had to go 7-5 to pick up a bigger head coaching gig. Three hits in three years helped build the program, but Blake Anderson has since steadied the boat, again mirroring the path that Norvell took. Both took over after a wildly successful rise and managed not just to keep the moment, but improve upon it.
Norvell went 38-16 over four years (compared to Fuente’s 26-23 over the same time period), capped with an ultra-talented 12-2 season last year, before accepting the head coaching job at Florida State. Freeze, Malzahn and Harsin combined to go 26-11 in their three seasons in Jonesboro, followed by the most consistent six years in school history, as Anderson has accumulated a 47-30 record and built stability where it has truly never been before. He hasn’t won on quite as high a level as Freeze or Malzahn, but he’s won more, with less drama, than any coach in school history.
The primary difference between the two programs as it stands today (other than the obvious talent and conference gap) is that Norvell had his breakout season and turned it into a new job. Anderson is still in Jonesboro, and he’s set to open the 2020 season against a first-time head coach in Ryan Silverfield, with a roster that, on paper, is more talented than anything Arkansas State has fielded since at least 2011.
So, why in the world is Memphis favored by 19 points entering this matchup? The easy answer is that for years the Tigers have been a known quantity, at least relative to the chaotic AAC at large. Memphis scores a lot of points, runs the ball as well as anyone with an explosive multi-back approach and usually wins shootouts because of it. A decent portion of last year’s team is back, so it’s fair to reason that Memphis will continue to be good regardless of coach, even without star halfback Kenneth Gainwell who opted out earlier this week.
Along with that, it seems as though Arkansas State, despite its consistency over the last six years, still hasn’t been recognized as a program that can compete with just about anyone on the G5 level, and as one that would put the fear of God into quite a few P5 schools. Especially this season. The Red Wolves had a brutal start to 2019, went 3-4 through seven games, and then turned into a killing machine on the offensive side of the ball, scoring 36 points per game in the final six contests of the year behind redshirt freshman Alabama transfer Layne Hatcher. Hatcher was great from his first start against Troy (25 of 35 for 440 yards and four touchdowns) and remained great through the entirety of the season. Once his teammates caught up, no one was able to slow down this passing attack.
A lot of the architects of that offense are back. Hatcher is back, as is 2019’s original starter Logan Bonner (who was also very good) and ASU plans to play both (this won’t work but it also won’t last very long, so it doesn’t matter). Every running back returns, including Marcel Murray (170 carries, 820 yards and six touchdowns in 2019) and speedy sixth-year senior Jamal Jones (84/375/3), as does the entire offensive line.
Losing wideouts Omar Bayless (93 receptions, 1,653 yards, 17 touchdowns) and Kirk Meritt (70/806/12) stings, but Jonathan Adams Jr. (62/851/5) is back, as is slot specialist Brandon Bowling (28/263/2). Former Texas A&M three-star Roshauud Paul is eligible as well.
All of that returning production is led by an offensive coordinator in Keith Heckendorf that impressed the hell out of me last year and has built a really cool vertical spread around Hatcher’s accuracy and big-bodied receivers like Adams Jr.
A lot of Arkansas State’s offense is built around exploiting man defense with favorable matchups on the perimeter. There are zone beaters in here certainly, but Hatcher and Bayless did their best work against man last season and Adams is basically a taller version of Bayless. I think the FIU defense serves as the best parallel in style and production to Memphis’ on Arkansas State’s schedule last season and the Red Wolves had a ton of success with types of vertical routes in that matchup. Both FIU and Memphis mix zone and man but run primarily out of man, and both had issues with allowing big plays (Memphis more so than FIU, though). Hatcher was pretty much automatic on four verts against man.
For Memphis, this is not at all a favorable matchup. The Tigers squared off with an offense pretty similar to ASU’s last year in SMU (though Sonny Dykes likes the air raid more than Heckendorf does) and had a bunch of problems with downfield shots like this one. Cornerbacks T.J. Carter and Jacobi Francis are both smaller and more reliant on speed and finesse in their man coverage, which pretty much just gave SMU free shots down field to its bigger receivers. It’s reasonable to assume that both Carter and Francis have improved at least slightly since last season, but they were being shoved around by James Proche, Reggie Roberson and Rashee Rice in this game and none of those guys are anywhere near as physical as Adams is.
Memphis’ answer to SMU’s downfield attack was usually just to slide a safety over to help, which worked well enough to prevent 75-yard touchdowns, but also served to open up the entire middle of the field for dig routes and quick hit RPOs.
Now, there’s no telling if new defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre will take the same approach, but he likes to use man coverage quite a bit and won’t likely abandon it, especially because with an abbreviated offseason, installing a ton of zone along with a new 3-4 front may be too daunting a task. If he does keep with the man coverage for most of the game, Arkansas State is more than happy attacking deep to force the safeties and linebackers out in the first half, only to turn to the quicker stuff across the middle in the second half. Both Bonner and Hatcher can make these types of reads pretty easily.
Even if Memphis decides to go with more of a zone approach to slow down what should be a really capable vertical game, Arkansas State has plenty of dig and flood concepts to attack weak spots in a zone, especially given that Memphis is going to be trotting four linebackers out in its base defense.
Memphis is more talented than Arkansas State and should still have an electric offense, which should be enough to win this game, but I’m not at all convinced that the Tigers can get off of the field consistently enough to win by nearly three touchdowns. Arkansas State’s defense isn’t going to do any real damage, but against a team with such a well-designed passing attack Memphis’ group has its work cut out for it more than people seem to be realizing.
That’s really the core that guides my interest in this matchup. It doesn’t have the heat that a strength-on-strength game does, but it’s a college football cousin to it, because you’re getting elite-on-below average on both sides of the field. When Memphis runs, Arkansas State isn’t going to have an answer for it, just as when ASU passes, Memphis is going to have a lot of trouble stopping it. It’ll be sloppier than usual because of the bizarre circumstances, but ASU absolutely has the horses to make this a shootout and regardless of who you are, it’s never going to be easy to win a shootout by as wide a margin as Vegas expects Memphis to.
The Pick: Arkansas State +19
Up next: Game review to be named at a later date