Note: This week’s paywalled game review will drop on Wednesday, still behind the paywall. I haven’t yet clipped what I need for it, so I’m running something that needs no clips today.
Three weeks have passed since our last quarterly G5 reset. We’re roughly halfway through the regular season now, staring down a second half with quite a few bills set to come due for teams all over the sport that managed to skate by in their first six games. With the conference slates fully open across the country, it’s as good a time as any to take another look at the contenders, pretenders and surprises throughout the G5 ranks.
The Contenders
AAC
Cincinnati (-)
SMU (-)
Houston (new)
No changes atop this league, and if I’m being honest, I think we can all but pencil Cincinnati and SMU into the conference title game at this point. The Bearcats are easily one of the best teams in the country and seem to be drawing legitimate playoff hype, even from portions of the college football mediasphere that’s usually completely opposed to G5 teams. If Cincinnati wins out, and I think it will, it’s in the CFP.
SMU, meanwhile, is a pretty comfortable No. 2. The defense isn’t good enough to beat Cincinnati, but the offense is excellent and is likely the best unit in the entire conference. The remaining schedule for the Mustangs isn’t completely smooth sailing, but if they can take care of business at home against Tulane, UCF and Tulsa, while avoiding a slip-up on the road in Houston and Memphis, the loss to Cincinnati on the road won’t do anything to knock them out of the conference title.
This brings us to Houston. The defense is improving significantly and has become quite a bit of fun to watch. I still don’t trust the offense, even a little bit, but Houston does seem to be legitimately pretty good. But, the question of how far this squad can go will come back to that Oct. 30 matchup with SMU. Win that (and the game with ECU that precedes it), and the four games that follow should all be manageable wins on the way to a title berth. Lose to SMU, though, and it’s a third-place finish for the Cougars. Not bad, but not as good as it probably should be.
Conference USA
UTSA (-)
UAB (-)
Charlotte (new)
Like in the AAC, I think that the top two are fairly cemented here. UTSA is 6-0 and has shown an ability to win football games in just about every way. It held onto a lead in the fourth quarter against Illinois, despite the Fighting Illini keying on the rushing attack and forcing quarterback Frank Harris to make plays in the passing game (he did); then, it did pretty much the same against MTSU and UNLV. It has blown out a bad team in Lamar and has three more chances to do so with Rice, Southern Miss, and North Texas still on the schedule. It came from behind to beat Memphis, deploying an efficient attack on offense while smothering the Tigers on defense. Now, after a 52-46 win over Western Kentucky, the Roadrunners have proven capable of winning a shootout.
That’s what good teams do. With the three bottom dwellers left on the schedule, UTSA only has three games that I see as even somewhat losable remaining – Louisiana Tech (very unlikely), UTEP (unlikely), and UAB (who fucking knows).
And even if UTSA does fall to UAB, I still think it would be easily within the top two in the league – even though only one of UAB and UTSA can emerge from the West division. Right now, UTSA has to be favored, even with UAB looking exactly as good as it always is.
But, two teams have to play in a conference title game, and from the sparsely populated East, I think Charlotte has to be the favorite right now. That offense can score with absolutely anybody in this league, and already has a pair of conference wins over MTSU and FIU. With FAU and Marshall dealing with serious internal flaws, Western Kentucky seems like the biggest challenger for the division, and at some point, those dudes have to win a big game before I can believe in them.
These next two matchups against FAU Oct. 21 and WKU Oct. 30 loom extremely large for the fate of the division, and right now, Charlotte is my pick – especially because even if it drops one of FAU, WKU, or Marshall, all three of those teams already hold a league loss, and I have no confidence that they won’t all sustain a second.
MAC
Kent State (new)
Northern Illinois (new)
I still have very little confidence in naming any team a MAC favorite, given the sheer level of parity in this league as its most talented squad (Toledo) continues to employ Jason Candle. But, Kent State is 2-0 in league play and its offense is starting to round into the form that we expected to see from it this season. This Saturday’s matchup with Western Michigan is a huge one, as is the Nov. 3 battle with this No. 2 team on this list.
Thomas Hammock’s NIU Huskies. I said in the offseason that NIU was undergoing a huge youth movement, and here it is, moving. NIU is full-on good. It has a pair of good league wins over Eastern Michigan and Toledo and a sure thing this weekend against Bowling Green. Central and Western Michigan remain, though, as does Kent State, so the path here certainly isn’t perfect. But, two out of three there, especially if it’s the two against the Michigan schools, plus gimmes against Bowling Green, Ball State, and Buffalo would send NIU to the conference title against, more than likely, Kent State (which finds itself in a suddenly very easy MAC East).
Mountain West
San Diego State (+1)
Nevada (+2)
Fresno State (-2)
Air Force (new)
San Diego State’s defense appears to be the best in the league, and the Aztecs are 5-0. They don’t exactly play an exciting brand of football, but they’re the only undefeated team in the league, and their ability to hold their opponents down is enough to earn the top spot. However, with Air Force, Fresno State, Nevada, and Boise State all left on the schedule, things are about to get a whole lot tougher in what looks like a three-team race for the West division.
Joining SDSU in that race are the No. 2 and 3 squads, Nevada and Fresno State. The former has played just one league game, but it was a big one – a cross-divisional win over Boise State. Oct. 23 against Fresno State, Nov. 13 against SDSU, and Nov. 19 against Air Force all stand out here, but Nevada should have the best offense in the league, and I think it absolutely could win any of those games because of that. Winning all of them, however, seems unlikely (though it does for SDSU and Fresno State too).
The latter, meanwhile, took a bad, bad loss to Hawaii, but remains in contention because of how good it looked before that. If the off week helped Jake Haener heal up, there’s a world where the Bulldogs can run the table. To win the division, they may need that to be this world, because Wyoming, Nevada, SDSU, and Boise State in the next four weeks is just fucking brutal. Win three of the four, and this is probably the conference champion. Anything less, and Fresno State’s unforced Hawaii error starts to hurt.
The Mountain offers less intrigue as Boise State continues to find its way and Wyoming reveals itself to be the same as it always is, but Air Force has emerged as, in my eyes, the top contender. The offense is efficient and capable of putting up points on anybody and the defense is fine. Like Fresno State, it has a bad loss in the league (to Utah State) and a tough slate remaining within the league (Boise State this weekend, SDSU on the 23rd, and Nevada on Nov. 19) but barring a big leap for the Broncos or Cowboys, 2-1 in those three should be enough.
Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina (-)
Louisiana (-)
Appalachian State (-)
No changes here, as none of the three have squared off against much of anything in the past three weeks. Coastal Carolina rolled through UMass, ULM, and Arkansas State and will finally draw an actual challenge on the 20th in Boone. Until then, it remains the undisputed favorite.
Louisiana, meanwhile, looks fully stuck in the mud, but it has still lost just one time. It struggled severely against both Georgia Southern and South Alabama – not a good sign. But, this group was a favorite entering the year for a reason, and we’re going to learn a whole lot more about the pecking order tomorrow night when Louisiana hosts Appalachian State.
The Mountaineers took a pair of important wins since our last update, besting Marshall in an absolute banger before crushing Georgia State on the road. They’ve been the second-best team in the conference thus far, but again, I’m not making any changes until tomorrow’s matchup, which will tell us quite a bit about who the top challenger to Coastal is. If App State wins, that Oct. 20 matchup is looking like one of the games of the year.
The Pretenders
AAC
UCF (-)
Memphis (new)
Tulane (new)
UCF lost to Navy and nearly did the same against ECU. Mikey Keene is not the guy at QB, and it’s only going to get harder, with Cincinnati this week and SMU still left on the schedule. A bowl bid is still likely, but I don’t know that the Knights are a whole lot beyond that.
I’m ready to say it: Ryan Silverfield stinks. Memphis has lost three straight and could have easily made it five against Mississippi State and Arkansas State. The offense is no longer good enough to cover for a heinous defense, and I’m not sure there are three more wins on the schedule.
I hate to say this about Willie Fritz, who I love, but his hires aren’t any good. He’s gone away from the offense that worked for him for so long by hiring more of a traditional spread OC in Chip Long, the latest in a few questionable moves on that side of the ball. The defense is awful and looks uncoached. I don’t know if 1-5 is a completely fair record, and I do think that wins against UCF, Tulsa, USF, and Memphis are possible to end the season, but these guys aren’t beating SMU or Cincinnati, so their season is already all but over.
Conference USA
FAU (new)
Marshall (new)
North Texas (-2)
Let’s do this one in three sentences:
Willie Taggart fucking sucks at his job.
Marshall just is not clicking with Charles Huff yet, and I don’t think it’s going to this season.
It’s time for North Texas to move on from Seth Littrell.
MAC
Toledo (-)
Buffalo (new)
Jason Candle just doesn’t have it, and I think that Toledo needs to start making some arrangements to look elsewhere for a head coach. Vince Kehres from within the staff would be on-brand, but honestly, I’d give Kerry Coombs at Ohio State a look. He’s a great recruiter within the state and as long as he doesn’t have to coach anyone, I think he’d be a great fit in the MAC. But this team, this season, doesn’t have it.
Count me as unimpressed with Maurice Linguist. This is a year zero, so I’ll cut him some slack, but man this program has fallen right back off after the departure of Lance Leipold. This staff can’t cover for the talent issues as Leipold’s could, and I’m not sure there’s a whole lot left for the Buffaloes to do this season beyond “let it end.”
Mountain West
San Jose State (new)
Wyoming (new)
Unfortunately, San Jose State is in the same spot as Buffalo. It’s not good here right now, and it’s not going to get better any time soon, with only one obvious win left on the schedule. Nick Starkel has been out with an arm injury and the offense has sputtered without him (even more than it did with him), the rushing attack has little to offer, and the defense’s turnover luck from last season has dried up.
Wyoming, on the other hand, is still largely fine. It lost to Air Force and fell to 4-1 this weekend and has the easiest slate left of anyone in the conference with New Mexico, SJSU, Colorado State, Utah State, and Hawaii all left, but I don’t think the offense is good enough to beat Fresno State or Boise State, and unfortunately, those are the two games left that matter.
Sun Belt
Troy (new)
South Alabama (new)
UL-Monroe (new)
Troy needs to find a new coach. This is a program that should be good, and with Chip Lindsey running the show, it runs the risk of jeopardizing that long-term, because the No. 2 school on the list could suddenly make things very hard on the Trojans.
However, South Alabama isn’t going to do that this year. This is still a good first year for Kane Wommack, but the lack of talent has shone through in each of the last two games, close losses to Louisiana and Texas State. App State, Coastal, and Tennessee remain on the schedule. At 3-2, a bowl game is still well within reach, but USA has to take care of business against all but one of Georgia Southern, UL-Monroe, Arkansas State, and Troy. Four bad teams, yes, but a lot to ask of a first-year staff.
The Surprises
AAC
ECU (new)
The Pirates are not back, but they are improving under Mike Houston. I think. The upsets of Marshall and Tulane were both huge steps in the right direction, and near misses against South Carolina and UCF provide more reason for confidence. Five of the last six games here are winnable – let’s see ECU get four of them, and we’ll start to talk about a rising power in the AAC.
Conference USA
UTEP (new)
Western Kentucky (-)
UTEP is 5-1, one game away from bowl eligible, and still has games against Louisiana Tech, FAU, North Texas and Rice left on the schedule. I’m not convinced this team is… good, in the traditional sense, but it’s a game away from bowling, and that kicks complete ass. I think the Miners get it either this weekend in front of a night game home crowd against Louisiana Tech or on the road at North Texas on Nov. 13. The former sure would be fun.
MAC
The Michigan Trio (new)
Again, I have zero thoughts on the MAC right now beyond “I have no clue what to think of any of these teams,” but the Michigan triumvirate is, if nothing else, fun to watch. It’s wildly inconsistent and I have no idea which of the three is good – if any of them are – but there are three interesting offenses here and that’s enough for me to celebrate.
Mountain West
Boise State (new)
UNLV (new)
Man, I just don’t know with this Boise State team. It’s still tremendously weak in several key areas, namely the run game, but it moved a good BYU team all over the field on Saturday. I’m not yet ready to reintroduce the Broncos as a contender, but that was a big, big win.
UNLV hasn’t won a game, but I’ll give it a minor shoutout for coming close on several occasions. I think there is a foundation of sorts here, Marcus Arroyo just won’t be the coach to enjoy its spoils.
Sun Belt
None
There are three good teams in this league right now. Let’s hope someone else, be it Texas State, South Alabama or otherwise, can jump up.