It’s that time again. It’s been three weeks since our last state of the G5 union, so it’s time for the third quarterly review of the season. As a point of order, I’m removing the pretenders’ tab from this list, because it feels pretty established at this point, and I don’t think we’ve picked up any significantly new teams. Instead, I’m expanding the contenders to any team with a serious shot at competing for a conference crown, with a ranking for conference race quality listed alongside the league name. Surprises do remain, though, both positive and negative. Let’s get started.
The Contenders
AAC (title race quality: C+)
Cincinnati (-)
Houston (+1)
SMU (-1)
We’ve got a change in the number two spot! Houston needed a kickoff return for a touchdown with just 17 seconds to play to topple SMU from the ranks of the unbeaten, but the Cougars outplayed SMU in front of a great Houston crowd and deserves now to be considered the easy favorite to fill the second spot in the AAC title game, especially as SMU still has to play Cincinnati, while Houston will skate by against USF, Temple, Memphis and UConn to end the season. With two games in hand over the Mustangs and SMU likely to take a second loss on Nov. 20, Houston would have to lose all three remaining conference games to fall out of the title game. That’s not happening.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, just has to beat SMU to lock up the same fate. The Bearcats have struggled somewhat in recent weeks with Navy and Tulane, but were never really challenged into the second half by the Green Wave – and I’m not going to blame a team too much for having trouble against the triple option.
Luke Fickell’s squad is still the obvious favorite in this league and will be a playoff team if it wins out, knocking off SMU and Houston in two of the last three weeks of the season before selection day. Tulsa, USF and ECU fill out the other three games to end the season – so it really will all come down to that SMU matchup. Based on what we’ve seen, I have no reason to bet against UC there.
That UC-Houston title game, if it does come to fruition, will be an absolute blast though. The two best defenses in the league facing off, with a spot in the playoff on the line. That’s the good shit, right there.
Conference USA (title race quality: A+)
UTSA (-)
Western Kentucky (new)
UTEP (new)
Marshall (new)
FAU (new)
UAB (-4)
The largest title race left in the G5 ranks resides in the C-USA, which is no surprise. This has been the most wide-open league all season, with several teams taking command as potential contenders throughout the season but only one holding onto it for an extended period.
That honor falls to UTSA, which is perfect in and out of conference play heading into a big-time matchup with UTEP this week in something of a West division elimination match. I’d be stunned if the Roadrunners fall here, but if they do, UTEP is suddenly the new West favorite – though it would have to get by UAB to hold onto that, which is easier said than done.
The Blazers aren’t quite as good as usual, taking a ghastly loss to Rice on Oct. 23, but they do still hold Southern Miss, FAU and North Texas – and that rushing attack will always keep them involved. They have only one league loss and do technically still control their destiny, though they’d need to win out, which involves taking three straight over Marshall and UTSA on the road and UTEP at home to end the year. That’s a brutal stretch.
Meanwhile in the East, I don’t see a defined favorite. All three of Marshall, FAU and Western Kentucky have one conference loss, and none have played each other. I think WKU might be the best of the bunch, winning three straight in conference play in blowout fashion, and coming up 11 combined points short of 7-1 with losses to Army, Indiana and UTSA. But, that defense does still give me pause. the Hilltoppers have a tough draw too. They get their counterparts consecutively to end the season – first against FAU at home on Nov. 20 and then in Huntington a week later.
Marshall is the most talented of the trio, but its four-game stretch from Sept. 18-Oct. 9 is just awful. Three losses, including two to lesser teams in ECU and Middle Tennessee State and an overtime win over a bad Old Dominion squad. The Thundering Herd were better in each of their last two, blowing out North Texas and FIU, but I don’t know what to believe here. Their final stretch will tell us a lot, but may also eliminate them from contention unless the answers to my questions are resounding in favor of the Herd. They have FAU on the road this week, UAB at home, Charlotte on the road and WKU at home to end the year. That’s brutal, and anything short of 3-1 with two wins in the East would all but eliminate Marshall from contention.
Lastly, FAU is one that I just don’t believe in yet. Perhaps Willie Taggart does have this thing cooking now with N’Kosi Perry and Johnny Ford playing well in the backfield and the league’s best defense to depend on, but the offense was just so bad to open the season. The Owls had 35 combined points in three losses to Florida, UAB and Air Force – all on the road. They have two more road trips, and one is to WKU. Even if they beat Marshall this week at home, anything flat in those back-to-back road matchups before a home bout with MTSU to end the season would put them behind the eight-ball in the league race.
With all of this, I’m probably trusting WKU to take this one. It has the easiest remaining schedule outside of the top three invitational and the unit I trust most offensively. FAU and Marshall have both looked improved as of late, but these late-season schedules offer no room for any more growing pains. If either one is going to win the crown, they have to be ready to get the job done each of the next four weeks. I can’t buy into their ability to do that yet.
MAC (title race quality: C-)
NIU (+1)
Kent State (new)
Miami (Ohio) (new)
This one is a bit unique because we’re actually about to get something of a title game preview tonight if everything holds as it has. NIU is slated to travel to Kent State for a cross-divisional bout, with both teams currently sitting at least a game ahead of the No. 2 squad in their division.
NIU is two games ahead of the Michigan trio and Ball State, with wins over Eastern and Central, so even a loss here doesn’t knock it out of the division lead, with Ball State set to come to town a week from now and Western Michigan on the docket to close out the season.
Kent State, though, has a bit more riding on this game. It would continue to control its destiny even with a loss, thanks to its lone conference loss coming across the division against Western Michigan, but it would have to essentially win out to secure a title game spot. With CMU, Akron and Miami left on the schedule, that wouldn’t be impossible by any means, but it still isn’t a great spot to be in.
Miami offered up some insurance by falling to Ohio last night, but if Kent State loses tonight and both squads win out beyond this week, their Nov. 27 matchup at Kent State would be for the East crown.
Mountain West (title race quality: A+)
Fresno State (+2)
Utah State (new)
San Diego State (-2)
Nevada (-2)
We’ve got a new leader! Two of them, even! Fresno State executed flawlessly in its chance to usurp San Diego State atop the West division, knocking the Aztecs from the ranks of the unbeaten with the best offensive performance I’ve seen from any team against Brady Hoke’s squad this season. With that win, Fresno State is now well in control of its destiny, holding victories over both San Diego State and Nevada in its back pocket as insurance.
However, a loss to any of Boise State, New Mexico or San Jose State would open the door for the winner of San Diego State-Nevada, which is scheduled for Nov. 13 in San Diego. You should watch that game.
Funny enough, with its remaining schedule, San Jose State still has a shot at this too. It would need San Diego State to lose to Nevada and once more to nullify SDSU’s Oct. 15 overtime win in their matchup, but the Spartans have Nevada, Utah State and Fresno State left on the schedule. If they win all three, they could still be left out, but they would have quite the resume for potential bowl games.
This brings us to the Aggies. Quietly 6-2 on the season, Utah State has bounced back from an early-season loss to Boise State and into the top spot in a down Mountain division, thanks to Air Force’s loss to SDSU a week ago. Because USU toppled Air Force early in the season, it has essentially two games of insurance on this spot unless Boise State manages to win out against a tremendously difficult Fresno State-Wyoming-New Mexico-SDSU final run. And even then, the Aggies would have to lose to one of New Mexico State-SJSU-Wyoming-New Mexico for that to matter. Blake Anderson’s boys are in the driver’s seat right now, and they should be feeling pretty comfortable about their lead.
Sun Belt (title race quality: B)
Louisiana (+1)
Appalachian State (+1)
Coastal Carolina (-2)
We’ve got drama in the Sun Belt! Coastal Carolina has tumbled from its top spot after its loss to Appalachian State in Boone, followed by a flat-out bad showing in a win over Troy. The Chanticleers should win out with Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Texas State and South Alabama left on the schedule, but GSU and USA are no longer gimmes as both teams improve in tandem with CCU’s step backward.
If the Panthers can pull an upset and win out, they’d find themselves an App State loss away from the conference title game themselves – though winning out would require beating Louisiana and Coastal on the road, back to back. Not fun.
Louisiana, meanwhile, is all but locked into its spot. It has GSU, Troy and ULM left on the Sun Belt slate (and a fun Nov. 20 non-con matchup with Liberty) and with a 5-0 record, none of the three-loss teams elsewhere in the division seem particularly primed for usurping the crown.
Across from it, the favorite has to be Appalachian State right now. That win over Coastal Carolina puts it firmly in the lead, though any slip-ups in the last four weeks against Arkansas State, South Alabama, Troy or Georgia Southern would put the Chanticleers back in control of their destiny. I’d keep an eye on South Alabama and Georgia Southern if you’re looking for drama here. The Jaguars have an aggressive defense and a good offense, and Deeper Than Hate is always capable of producing an upset, especially in a year with at least one of the teams playing for a division crown. The Eagles will be up for that one.
The Surprises
AAC
ECU (-)
Tulsa (new)
ECU is a pair of wins away from heading to a bowl game for the first time in the Mike Houston era, last making an appearance in the 2014 Birmingham Bowl under Ruffin McNeill. The Pirates have still yet to bounce back from the disastrous firing of McNeill but seem to be on the right path here. Keaton Micthell is one of the league’s best halfbacks, and at some point, Holton Ahlers might get his shit back together at quarterback after falling off badly this season – although he’s without much at wide receiver to help with that.
If he does, a bowl game seems very likely here. Temple at home, followed by Memphis and Navy on the road are all winnable games before a season-ending loss to Cincinnati – especially with a better passing attack than what Ahlers has provided thus far, and an improving defense that has played its three best games in its last three matchups.
Tulsa is a surprise in the other direction, unfortunately. Graduation, draft departures and transfers have decimated this defense, and after a brief resurgence with wins over Memphis and USF in back-to-back games, the Golden Hurricane are right back in hell with a loss this past week to Navy. Four games remain, meaning that a bowl berth is not impossible, but Cincinnati and SMU are part of the four. This is all but done, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Phillip Montgomery is gone come season’s end barring a miracle upset.
Conference USA
Louisiana Tech (new)
Southern Miss (new)
Two negative ones here. In an otherwise very fun conference, Louisiana Tech has fallen behind quickly and looks to be in a tough spot for realignment as well. The Sun Belt would have made sense, but it doesn’t seem particularly interested in the Bulldogs. The defense has fallen completely off a cliff, the offense isn’t much better, and Skip Holtz seems to have his eye on the goddamn UConn job, of all places. I think a quick move here to stop the skid could be in order, but for right now, Tech is in a really bad place.
Southern Miss has a less dire outlook moving forward, but man does it suck right now. A once-proud program sits now at 1-7 with the lone win coming over an FCS squad. Will Hall, who was hired for his offensive acumen, has the worst offense in America – granted, quarterback injuries have not been generous.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that he seems to have plenty of security, he’s recruiting very well, and Southern Miss is set to join the new-look Sun Belt. I think things will get headed in the right direction sooner than later, but this is just not a fun watch this season.
MAC
The rest of the West
Beyond NIU in the West, I have approximately four question marks and one exclamation point. I don’t know what to think about any of the Michigan schools or Ball State yet – beyond thinking that it’s cool that EMU is headed to another bowl game. But, I know exactly what to think of Toledo, which needs to fire Jason Candle and move in a different direction.
Mountain West
San Jose State (new)
Air Force (new)
I’ve touched on both a bit, so I won’t do a ton more here, but I do just want to mention that Brent Brennan is a really impressive football coach. SJSU is a win away from a second-straight bowl game despite breaking in a new quarterback in the middle of the season without any sort of rushing attack to speak of. The offense has been rough all year and isn’t going to be fixed by the end of the season, but this defense is excellent again and has kept everything afloat. Nick Nash is only going to get better at QB with two more years of eligibility, and I think that if Brennan stays in town he should be able to produce another bowl team. It’s not quite title contention as it was a year ago, but this is an extremely tough place to win, and Brennan has done a great job. He deserves a shout, and probably a bigger job – though I don’t want to talk about coaches through that lens, so let’s keep him in San Jose.
Sun Belt
Georgia State (new)
ULM (new)
Georgia State hasn’t done it at all how I thought it would, but the Panthers have pulled together a pretty nice season from the wreckage of an awful start. Projected starter Cornelius Brown IV was terrible to open the season, and rather than sticking with him over his preseason acclaim, the Panthers jumped to Darren Grangier and have been rewarded for it. This still isn’t a great team, nor is it ready to fill the No. 4 spot in the Sun Belt as I had hoped, but to be two games from bowl eligibility after starting 1-4, and doing it with an almost entirely new cast of characters after several of your projected stars struggled, is impressive as hell. Wins over Troy and Arkansas State get the Panthers to the promised land.
Mea culpa on Terry Bowden and ULM here. I thought this would be awful, and it isn’t The Warhawks are also two games from bowl eligibility, the team seems to really like Bowden, and if it can beat Texas State and Arkansas State – both very winnable – it’ll be bowling. There’s nothing distinctly impressive here on the field, but these guys just seem to win games and that’s a pretty sizable step in the right direction. Good for them, and good for Terry.