Tier 4: Probably Don’t Need These
Bahamas Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. Toledo, Noon, Dec. 17
This is the worst bowl game of the entire bunch. Middle Tennessee skated to six wins on an easy schedule and is without anything to be interested in. The offense has been bad to very bad since quarterback Chase Cunningham’s injury in October and isn’t going to be any better here.
Toledo does at least have some semblance of quality. The defense has been quietly excellent pretty much all season, and I really like the backfield pairing of burgeoning quarterback DeQuan Finn and established tailback Bryant Koback. The Rockets severely underperformed this year, but the talent was never the issue, and it did seem to catch on late. This one could be a blowout for Toledo.
Myrtle Beach: Tulsa vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., Dec. 20
Okay, I am kind of interested in this one, but not because these two are proven as good teams. Rather, both programs here finished the season a whole lot better than they started it, and I’m really curious to see if either can sustain that going into next season.
Phillip Montgomery almost certainly saved his own job with three straight wins to end the season with bowl elgiibility, including a season-closing 34-31 stunner against an SMU team that was, admittedly, functionally without a head coach. Regardless, the bounce back from a 1-4 start was impressive, especially without much of any passing attack from Davis Brin. Tulsa runs the ball well and it plays good defense.
That’s a fun contrast with Old Dominion, which certainly seems to have found something in quarerback Hayden Wolff. His stats aren’t especially impresssive, but the gunslinger went 5-1 as a starter and his offense averaged 33.3 points in those contests. He has a big arm, and adding that dimension to the offense seemed to open everything up for everyone else – especially halfback Blake Watson, who was phenomenal in that six game stretch (135 carries, 700 yards, seven touchdowns).
Famous Idaho Potato: Kent State vs. Wyoming, 3:30 p.m., Dec. 21
If you combined these two, you’d have one whole football team. And I just think that’s neat.
Tier 3: Not Entirely Good, But Something To Watch
New Mexico: UTEP vs. Fresno State, 2:15 p.m., Dec. 18
I really like both teams here, but I do not like this matchup at all, if that makes sense. Fresno State, even without Kalen DeBoer, is a fundamentally better team than UTEP and should prove that on the field.
And that stinks! UTEP had a great season and should get the chance to end it the right way. I just don’t see a chance to do that here. Unless Gavin Hardison can hit on several explosive passes and the defense can really pull it all together, Fresno State is just too complete a team for UTEP to seriously challenge it, especially if Jake Haener is in tow. If he doesn’t play, this becomes more interesting, but right now I’m not expecting much here. I think that swapping Liberty for UTEP would have benefitted both teams, and creates a pair of better matchups in the process. Which brings me to…
LendingTree: Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty, 5:45 p.m., Dec. 18
It’s fine. Eastern Michigan’s offense against Liberty’s is plenty entertaining, but I’m not sure that there’s a ton of juice beyond that. As I said, I think Liberty-Fresno State and Eastern Michigan-UTEP would be significantly better games, but that’s not the exercise here, so I’ll drop it.
Armed Forces: Army vs. Missouri, 8 p.m., Dec. 22
It’s always fun to watch a triple option team slowly consume a Power Five opponent, and buddy, I don’t know if we’ll ever have a more obvious opportunity for it. Missouri can’t defend the run even a little bit, and Army is going to want to exert some force after that tough loss to Navy Dec. 11.
Tier 2: Good Stuff, Should Watch
Independence: BYU vs. UAB, 3:30 p.m., Dec. 18
It’s a bit of a mismatch because BYU is a better team, but I think that this one has a lot to like. Even with that edge in talent, UAB is really good at keeping games close with its defense and rushing attack. The Blazers came up only three points short of UTSA, and this feels like a similar matchup to me.
Plus, DeWayne McBride against Tyler Allgeier is just a great running back battle, and we don’t get enough of those.
LA Bowl: Utah State vs. Oregon State, 7:30 p.m., Dec. 18
I’m in on every P5-G5 bowl matchup we can get (we need more of them) and this is the best of the early bunch of games – though obviously it’s a small group. Utah State touts an excellent passing attack and an offense in general that has really excelled late in the season. It’s fresh of the best game we’ve seen this group play, and Oregon State has faded a bit down the stretch. I think we could very well have a Mountain West upset here.
New Orleans: Marshall vs. Louisiana, 9:15 p.m., Dec. 18
The records here do not shout “good game, should watch” but the teams involved sure do. Louisiana is going to be working without the head coach it played for all season, and the Ragin Cajuns have had a tendency to play down to opponents all season. The rushing attack and defense should be enough to win any game, but coming out flat here is not recommended.
Especially because Marshall has been really solid in the last month, and it too is succeptible to weird shit, in both directions. Marshall is rarely down the middle, it’s usually either really good or really bad. If the former arrives here, a sleepy Louisiana could get punched in the mouth, and we could have a heater here.
Tier 1: Absolutely Must Watch
Cure Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois, 6 p.m., Dec. 17
I cannot wait to watch my two beautiful, perfect sons fight each other in the parking lot for three hours. This is a wonderful football game. Neither team needs to throw the ball even a little bit, and frankly, I don’t think either of them should. There might be 600 rushing yards in this one. Appointment television.
Boca Raton: Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State, 11 a.m., Dec. 18
I’m not entirely sure why this is Western Kentucky’s spot instead of Marshall’s, given that the Hilltoppers are better than Marshall and should probably draw the Sun Belt winner instead of its No. 2, but this is still very good nonetheless. We have some geographic ties that are always nice in a bowl, and a great clash of styles.
Western Kentucky is going to throw the hell out of the ball – which App State has not had a whole lot of fun defending this season – and Appalachian State is going to do a little bit of everything – and Western Kentucky can’t do much about that against a competent offense, apparently. It’s not quite on Coastal Carolina-NIU’s level, but this is very balanced, offers a whole lot of variety, and should be a blast to watch.
Frisco: UTSA vs. San Diego State, 7:30 p.m., Dec. 21
The heat has come off both squads a bit in recent weeks after losses to North Texas and Utah State respectively, but both remain among the best in the G5 ranks, and to see them square off is exciting regardless of how they finished their seasons.
As for the match up itself… we’ll see. San Diego State’s defense was outstanding save for that Utah State game and should return to form, while UTSA showed flashes of brilliance all season on both sides of the ball but also had some very strange lapses throughout. If we get the best of both, this could be one of the best games of the postseason. Though if either isn’t ready to go, it could get ugly quick.