Your Comprehensive* MAC Preview
*I've done the best that I can with a fairly small amount of available information.
MAC football is back, baby. It’s back in about the most bizarre way imaginable, tossing all 12 teams onto television at once tonight, but in times of immense chaos, the MAC should probably be praised and thanked for giving us some Bowling Green-Toledo to soothe our poor souls.
Before those games kick off, I figured that I would be betraying the spirit of this here newsletter if I didn’t take a deep dive into the MAC waters for a de facto preview.
Unfortunately, information on the MAC is very hard to find, specifically compared to just about any other conference. There aren’t a ton of televised MAC games every year, and only about half of those that are televised make it onto YouTube in any form. That makes it pretty tricky to do scheme breakdowns (well, along with the fact that I have a full-time job that isn’t this, and there are 12 MAC teams, and that’s too much work).
So, instead of full team breakdowns, I’ve pulled one key player and one key advanced stat for each MAC team to give you as much background on what to watch for, with as little information as possible. Think of this as the Jetson’s-style food pill for conference information. Let’s go.
Akron
Key player: DB Jalen Hooks.
A tricky start, because junior defensive back Jalen Hooks isn’t currently listed on the Akron roster, but I cannot find anything that indicates he isn’t on the team, so we’re going to roll with this and hope that he’s still there.
For Akron’s sake, Hooks really needs to be there. He was pretty much the lone lockdown defensive back on a really really bad defense last season, and helped to create a unit that was at least capable of stopping big plays, though it couldn’t stop much else.
If he is back, he should have an improved defensive backs group around him. Randy Cochran Jr., A.J. Watts and Jordyn Riley all return, which should give Hooks the ability to move to safety full time, where his large frame (6-2, 185) suits him a bit better. He’s not a great athlete, but he’s rangey and has good ball skills, which should give Akron a very solid security detail at the back of the defense.
He’s also capable in man coverage, as you see here, with means that, in theory, Akron could survive playing a decent amount of cover 1 this season from a 4-2-5 look. The run defense is still going to struggle but you might have to actually do some gameplanning to move the ball on Akron this season, even if that gameplanning is just deciding to hand the ball off. After an 0-12 season, that’s a start.
Key Stat: 29.7 percent offensive success rate.
Good lord. This was the worst success rate in America last season by three whole percentage points. This is absolutely awful. I don’t expect that it will get a ton better this season. Quarterback Kato Nelson is back and managed to lead the team in carries last season (109) while averaging just 1.1 yards per attempt. If he can reduce the number of sacks he’s taking, he could be at least a decently efficient runner (5.1 yards per non-sack carry last year, 41 percent success rate per Bill Connelly).
There isn’t much else in the running game, though, so this will likely be an inefficient offense again this season. The good news, if there is any, is that Akron wasn’t terrible at creating big plays last season. If Nelson can continue to find Nate Stewart and Jeremiah Knight at least a few yards down the field to allow them to make some plays, the passing game should be improved enough to keep Akron out of the very bottom of the barrel for a second straight year. That’s the benefit of being an extremely inexperienced team in 2019: it almost has to get better in 2020.
Projected finish: 5th in the East
While I think things will get better for the Zips this season, it won’t be by much. Tom Arth was in a year-negative one or negative two situation last season, and this is another season in a similar spot. Any sort of progress is important, and there should be progress in the passing game on both sides of the ball. That might be enough to avoid another winless season, especially with Bowling Green on the schedule. If BGSU is as bad as I expect, 1-5 may be enough for Akron to edge them out in the East.
Ball State
Key player: CB Amechi Uzodinma II
If Ball State is successful this season, it will be because of its back seven. Former linebackers coach Tyler Stockton is taking over the defense after building a really nice room last year with Jaylin Thomas, Christian Albright, and Jordan Williams, and all three of those guys are back. Redshirt junior Brandon Martin should be improved as well this season.
The secondary, led by its cornerbacks, might be even better. There’s a very good case to be made that Amechi Uzodinma II is one of the best cornerbacks in the conference entering the season, and he’s joined by Antonio Phillips, who may be even better. The safeties are a bit more of a question mark, but there may not be a more difficult defense to pass on in the MAC this year than this one, even without a very good defensive line.
That should be enough to keep Ball State competitive in every game it plays this season. However, that won’t be enough to truly challenge for the West.
Key Stat: 4.01 Points Per Opportunity.
Ball State finished 34th in Points Per Opportunity last season, which essentially means that when the Cardinals had the chance to score, they usually took advantage. This should be a good offense again this season. Quarterback Drew Plitt, running back Caleb Huntley, wide receivers Antwan Davis and Justin Hall and a decent chunk of the line returns, so we can assume at least slight growth for this group, which was also one of the best in the conference a year ago.
Projected finish: 4th in the West.
If the defense does improve, we might have a serious contender here with the offense expected to continue pretty solid production. However, if the defense is still rough, the West is too good for Ball State to win as a one-dimensional team. I think the end result will be somewhere in between the two, with a slightly better offense and a decently better defense, enough to edge out the lower half of the division but not enough to topple Western Michigan, Central Michigan or Toledo.
Bowling Green
Key player: TE Quintin Morris.
Things are very, very bad here. Bowling Green managed to win three games last season despite hiring Scot Loeffler to run the program, who immediately hired Brian VanGorder to run his defense and Erik Campbell to help with the offense by infusing it with Lloyd Carr’s terrible ideas even more than Loeffler already had.
Because of that, it’s pretty hard to find a bright spot here. Quarterback Grant Loy was better than Darius Wade and immediately transferred to Auburn this offseason, while Wade graduated, leaving junior Matt McDonald to run what is truly one of the most archaic offenses in football right now. Leading rusher Davon Jones is gone too, leaving Andrew Clair and Bryson Denley there to try to fill in. Neither was especially good last season, but this is a power run team and the offensive line is at least slightly improved, so they may be able to run a little more this year.
If there’s going to be any sort of passing game here, it’s going to run through tight end Quintin Morris. He was easily the leading receiver last season with 55 receptions for 649 yards and four scores, and at 6-4, 250, he presents a significant matchup challenge to anyone that Bowling Green will play. Getting him the ball will be an issue, but he can make some plays once he has it.
Key Stat: 22 percent passing downs success rate.
This team absolutely could not move the ball when it fell behind schedule. Because there was little-to-no downfield passing presence, anything more than a 3rd-and-6 was essentially a guaranteed punt. That won’t likely change this season unless the running game is significantly improved to keep the offense consistently on schedule, and I certainly wouldn’t bank on that.
Projected finish: 6th in the East.
There’s just not much here. The offense will only see marginal improvement if any, and the defense is replacing four members of the front seven after a season that saw Bowling Green allow almost 40 points a game. Morris will provide some entertainment, as will Clair, but this is a bad football team.
Buffalo
Key player: RB Jarett Patterson.
Here’s your conference offensive player of the year. Jarret Patterson was spectacular last season, gaining 1,799 yards on 312 carries. He won’t likely have to tote the ball quite so much this season, but if his workload is reduced slightly, it could make him even more explosive.
Also, just from a football perspective, he’s a blast to watch. He’s not a speedster by any means, but he’s quick on his feet and runs like a bowling ball in Buffalo’s zone scheme.
Key Stat: Ran 75 percent of the time on standard downs.
I don’t expect this will continue this season, which means that there could be a fairly different looking offense from the Bulls this season. With what should be an improved passing game featuring returning production at quarterback Kyle Vantrease and in star receiver Antonio Nunn, along with a fairly depleted line, it would make sense if Buffalo returns to a bit more of a passing approach this season, even with Patterson in the backfield.
Projected finish: 1st in the East.
I haven’t even touched on the defense, which is actually the best part of this team, because I don’t really expect it to see any sort of drop off from last season. If that’s the case, and the defense remains a top 50 unit, any sort of offensive improvement, specifically in the passing game should be enough to launch Buffalo into the top spot. Ohio and Miami (Ohio) are tough too but I think Buffalo has to be the clubhouse favorite right now.
Central Michigan
Key player: WR Jacorey Sullivan
A first-team All-MAC selection in 2019, senior wideout Jacorey Sullivan looks to be the best playmaker on a team that will need playmakers to step up with redshirt freshman quarterback Daniel Richardson taking over for as long as former starter David Moore remains suspended for a failed banned substance test last season.
"We're just waiting on the final report from the NCAA as far as moving forward, still haven't gotten anything there," head coach Jim McElwain said. "If not, we'll go ahead with (Richardson) and Ty Brock."
There should be plenty of guys to fill that playmaker role, led by Sullivan. Kalil Pimpleton is back at wide receiver as well, making this the MAC’s best pass-catching duo, along with halfback Kobe Lewis, who went over 1,000 yards last season as the No. 2 back.
That bodes well. There are big plays to be had for all of these guys, and while this isn’t likely to be an especially efficient offense, it should be one of the most explosive in the conference.
Key Stat: 28.9 percent stuff rate.
This defense was fantastic against the run last season, and should be again this year. Central Michigan’s defense stuffed more runs and created more havoc than almost any defense in the country last year and with end LaQuan Johnson, tackle Robi Stuart and linebackers Troy Brown and Chuck Jones all back this season, there should be no step back on this front.
The secondary will likely be worse, which will cause some issues against good passing attacks, but there aren’t a ton of those in the MAC, and the line should still be good enough to get plenty of pressure, making this one of the best defenses in the conference once again.
Projected finish: 2nd in the West.
I don’t think that the efficiency on offense will be good enough for Central Michigan to knock off Toledo, but with this defense and those skill players on offense, there should be more than enough here for CMU to seriously compete.
Eastern Michigan
Key player: DE Turan Rush.
This might be a bit of a step-back season for Eastern Michigan, but it’s hard to imagine anyone being upset with Chris Creighton for that. After three bowl berths in the last four seasons, for a program with four bowl berths in its history, it’s safe to say that Creighton has made his mark and earned some leeway.
He’ll likely need to use up some of that good will this season, because quarterback Mike Glass, essentially every offensive playmaker (save for two wide receivers) and nearly half of the starting defense have departed from Ypsilanti. Creighton has recruited well enough to weather this storm, but he may not do it with anything special in the record books this season.
However, senior Turan Rush will likely serve as a bit of a bright spot in a defense that will need pass rushers. He’s a good athlete for his size and should see a decent amount of improvement this season, especially as he’s asked to step into a starring role.
Key Stat: 46.7 percent rushing success rate allowed.
While Rush is going to help with getting to the passer, Eastern Michigan is all but doomed if its run defense is as bad this season as it was last season. There are some cases where losing starters isn’t necessarily a bad thing, and that may be the case with some of the guys in this front seven. The defense will not be good, but if EMU is able to get contributions from some younger guys in the front seven, any sort of improvement on this would be welcome and necessary.
Projected finish: 5th in the West.
As I said, it’s a step-back year. Defensive quality will likely determine if Eastern Michigan is able to beat out Ball State for this No. 4 spot, but I think it’s pretty much guaranteed to be No. 4 or No. 5 with a solid top three in place and an awful NIU team earmarked for that No. 6 spot.
Kent State
Key player: QB Dustin Crum.
Somehow the only quarterback on the list, Dustin Crum is potentially the best passer in America that you’ve never heard of. He tossed for 2,625 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and two interceptions, along with a team-high 707 rushing yards and six TDs last season, and will likely be the best quarterback in the conference this season.
He’s also a ton of fun to watch. He has a great arm and a good receiver to throw to in Isaiah McKoy, and this line should be able to hold up in pass protection pretty well. Sean Lewis has had the entire offseason to build an offense around him, which was not the case last season (Crum entered 2019 as a backup), which just adds more heat to this flame.
He’ll also likely lead the team in rushing again, because there’s no solid No. 1 back here, and he’s just really strong as a scrambler. There’s a lot of Jordan Lynch here.
Key Stat: 47.6 percent success rate allowed.
This defense was very bad last season, and will likely be very bad again this season. Crum is good enough to keep the offense on pace to score with anyone, but there are just way too many yards to be had against this group, especially on the ground.
The key to improvement is likely just going to be based around big plays. If Kent State is able to force some turnovers and get to the quarterback quickly, it could be enough to compete. If not? This is a very very problematic group.
Projected finish: 4th in the East.
I think it’s going to be very close here. Kent State has some of the best individual talent in the conference and that should keep it in games, but the depth and recruiting production just isn’t there yet for Lewis. He’s building something pretty cool, but Miami, Ohio and Buffalo are already built.
Miami (Ohio)
Key player: DE Kameron Butler.
It’s pretty hard to pick against the defending champs, especially because these defending champs return 10 offensive starters and seven defensive starters, including 2019 MAC freshman on the year quarterback Brett Gabbart, running back Tyre Shelton and receiver James Maye, all of whom were part of a youth movement on offense that created a pretty rough group at times but will likely yield some stronger results with a year of development now down.
The defense is much more established, led by Kameron Butler. Butler isn’t a superstar, but he’s a great athlete, very quick off the ball and should be an integral part of what certainly looks like another very strong defense.
Key Stat: 5-0 in one-score finishes in 2019.
This is not a sustainable way to live. Miami is the defending champion, returns pretty much all of its players, and almost has to do worse this season. That’s not usually how this kind of thing works following a youth movement, but that’s what is happening here. It seems likely that Miami will get better this season and also have a worse conference showing to hold up for that improvement, because these numbers have to normalize eventually.
Projected finish: 3rd in the East.
I think Miami has the talent to win the East. Buffalo is solid, as is Ohio, but I don’t think that there’s anything that significantly separates those two from Miami. However, as alluded to, this just seems like an LRO (luck runs out) situation here. Eventually, one or two of those close games are going to go the wrong way, and I think that both times will be against the teams that ultimately finish atop the division.
Northern Illinois
Key player: WR Cole Tucker.
Listen, there’s not going to be an encouraging pitch for all of these teams. NIU is going to get some fresh air and exercise. Quarterback Ross Bowers could be decent, and he has wide receiver Cole Tucker to throw to, who could be in for a breakout season, but there just isn’t much else here worth noting in a positive way.
With Tucker and Bowers, the offense could be in for some big plays. The loss of halfback Tre Harbison to Charlotte is a pretty massive blow, and there’s nothing on this defense that makes me think this is anything but a one-or-zero-win team in 2020.
Key Stat: No. 4 in the MAC for the 2020 class.
Help is on the way for Thomas Hammock. His first season with NIU was less than ideal and year two looks like it’s going to be quite a bit worse, but it isn’t all bad for the Huskies. Hammock’s 2020 class is strong and the 2021 class in on a similar path. With three-star quarterback Dustin Fletcher now in the fold after signing in that 2020 class, the future for this program at quarterback and in general looks pretty bright, just not this season.
Projected finish: 6th in the West.
Ohio
Key player: RB O’Shaan Allison.
I’ve written about Ohio’s unique pistol option offense before, and it could be in for a banner year this season with halfback O’Shaan Allison returning and massive, athletic former UNLV quarterback Armani Rogers is a contender for the starting role, which could make for a really fun option offense.
Key Stat: 11 seniors in the starting lineup.
Pretty much everyone is back on this team, too. Allison is the most exciting piece, but senior halfback De’Montre Tuggle is here too, as is Cameron Odom and Isiah Cox at wide receiver, along with pretty much the entire 2019 defense. This was a really strong team that didn’t find any sort of results to show for it last year. They have a chance to pretty much just run it back in 2020, with a quarterback that should have a stronger arm than Nathan Rourke did, though if Rogers gets the nod, it’ll come with some issues in accuracy unless Frank Solich is a wizard.
Projected finish: 2nd in the East.
If there’s a true competitor for Buffalo’s crown this season, I think it has to be Ohio. This is an experienced, talented team that understands its system very well, and it feels like Solich just has to get one at some point. The replacement of Rourke will likely be somewhat of an issue all year, but this may be the best team top-to-bottom in the conference. However, that hasn’t been enough in the past for Ohio. Will this finally be the year?
Toledo
Key player: WR Bryce Mitchell.
I have no idea what to think of this program. Matt Campbell left it in excellent condition with elite recruiting relative to the conference, and he handed it off to his right hand man, who has seemingly done very little to change the way that the program operates.
Despite that, Toledo lost six games last season and placed 114th in SP+. There were some issues last season with the coaching staff that seem to have been alleviated, but it’s still very easy to be gun-shy with this program because of that volatility under Jason Candle. Toledo consistently looks like the best team on paper and then seems to fall apart halfway through the season with little to no explanation.
With that said, I’m ready to be hurt again. I think this is the best team in the conference. There’s experience all the way through the two-deep on both sides of the ball and I really like Eli Peters at quarterback, if he does in fact get the nod as a starter.
He should have some serious weapons to work with too, including the possession receiver to end all possession receivers in Bryce Mitchell, who has the exact play style and body type of a tight end, but plays out wide in Toledo’s offense. He’s wonderful and I cannot wait to see him play.
Key Stat: 1.28 second-level yards allowed per rush.
With that said, to win the conference, this defense has to get better. It allowed more second-level rushing yards than almost anyone last season.
Projected finish: 1st in the West.
The defense is going to determine this, as I alluded to. I love the defensive line, led by Jamal Hines, Nate Givhan, Desjuan Johnson and Terrance Taylor, but I absolutely do not trust the back seven. There will be a very strong pass rush here all season, but the other guys on the field need to pick up some of that slack and tighten up in the back half of the defense. Even if big plays are just reduced by a little, it should be enough with this line. I think that a decent Toledo defense paired with this offense wins the conference.
Western Michigan
Key player: WR Skyy Moore.
There’s a lot to like here. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby has looked good when he’s had the chance to play, running back Sean Tyler is looking to build on a strong freshman campaign, and wide receiver Skyy Moore is one of my favorite receivers in the conference. He’s just electric with the ball in his hands.
Defensively there’s a little bit less to like, but in what was a young team last season, the talent should be there with more experience this season.
Key Stat: Ninth in marginal explosiveness.
This offense was so so so boom or bust last season. That makes sense with a young team and with a young offense, and it’s very easy to say that if Western Michigan can harness that and lean into it, it’ll be a serious title contender. However, college football is rarely that clean, and it seems likely that this will remain a shaky group into 2020.
Projected finish: 3rd in the West.
I think that the ceiling is there, as is the talent, but there’s just not going to be enough efficiency on either side of the ball to get the job done against the best of the best. In a normal season, this is the kind of team that jumps up and gets a power five team, but without that opportunity this season, Western Michigan just looks like a pretty strong 4-2 team that will likely explode on a top team and pull off an upset, before shitting the bed in another game that it should win.