A quick note at the top here: I know Cincinnati-Alabama isn’t included. That will get its own preview, and I didn’t feel it necessary to include it here because of that. Be on the lookout for that story this time next week.

Tier 4: Probably Don’t Need These

Gasparilla: UCF vs. Florida, 7 p.m., Dec. 23

We’re pulling for UCF because the Knights are the G5 team here, but I’ll tell you, I hate both of these teams. UCF hired the SEC’s foremost fail sons to run what was once the coolest program in the AAC and has received exactly what it asked for, declining consistently since the arrival of Josh Heupel and only moving further in that direction in Gus Malzahn’s first season at the helm.

Malzahn’s offense oscillated between “putting up big numbers on bad teams” and “getting shoved into a storm drain by good ones” all season. Because his run design is no longer on the cutting edge of offensive football and because he tabbed Isaiah Bowser as his No. 1 back, UCF’s rushing attack lacked the spark that it needed to make up for an entirely unspectacular and often inefficient Mikey Keene-led passing attack after Dillon Gabriel’s season-ending injury.

This offense was still at times fun to watch, against bad opponents and when Johnny Richardson had the ball, but he only carried 101 times because of UCF’s commitment to spreading the touches around its backfield, which just isn’t worth doing when the other backs involved are Bowser and Auburn transfer Mark-Antony Richards.

Against a Florida defense that can’t defend counter, Richardson could be in for a big day. But other than that, this one just doesn’t appeal. UCF is without its offensive firepower of even the Heupel era, the defense is entirely middling, and Florida fucking stinks out loud.

Hawaii: Hawaii vs. Memphis, 8 p.m., Dec. 24

I have no interest in talking about this game. These guys stink and half of Hawaii’s roster is in the transfer portal, over the thing I do want to talk about.

How has Hawaii not fired Todd Graham? SFGate in early December:

One player told SFGATE, “I would go as far to say it’s verbal abuse the way he talks to guys. … It’s personal. It’s not like, ‘Oh, you need to be faster.’ He’s calling guys useless, jackass and a sack of s—t.”
Another current player said, “He’s never talked to me about anything. I’ve never shook his hand.” Another said he never once spoke to his position coach this season and is leaning towards quitting the team: “This coaching staff made me lose the love of the game.”

Graham is 11-11 in two seasons at Hawaii. He’s secured the No. 11 and No. 12 recruiting classes in the Mountain West in 2021 and 2022, without landing a single top-five player from within his own state. He’s turned largely to the transfer portal for his impact players, and his picks have largely either failed to produce or have decided that they hate him, just like the rest of their teammates. This is a man who has proven time and time again that if he does manage to win enough to get any sort of P5 attention, he’ll jump at it in a heartbeat while plucking a large chunk of his staff and sitting recruiting class.

And now, on top of that, current players are going to media and providing quotes on abuse, which is almost unheard of in the sport.

Meanwhile, Ken Niumatalolo, one of the school’s most prominent alumni who runs an offense that would be unique on the west coast and valuable in tricky recruiting territory, was publicly enmeshed in a power struggle with his athletic director earlier this season and has been pretty open in looking at other jobs in the past. One of the program’s greatest players, Timmy Chang, is going to produce multiple NFL draft picks this season out of the Nevada receivers room, which he directed.

Seems like pairing those two up with a direct line of succession to Chang when Niumatalolo retires after stabilizing the program would make a whole lot of sense, especially in a time where fan buy-in is critical as the program prepares to build a new stadium as an economic cornerstone.

Or, Hawaii can keep the guy with 11 players in the portal and more to come, and a recruiting class that signed six players in the Early Signing Period and has two high school prospects that can claim at least three recruiting stars, neither of which are ranked nationally in the 247Sports composite. Impossible to say which one is better.

Tier 3: Not Entirely Good, But Something To Watch

Frisco Classic: Miami (Ohio) vs. North Texas, 3:30 p.m., Dec. 23

Would you like to see a bad matchup? North Texas’ defense, while very good at limiting efficiency, is easily the worst in the Conference USA when it comes to allowing explosive plays. Specifically, explosive passing plays, which have caused the Mean Green serious problems all season, even in a five-game winning streak down the stretch that almost certainly saved Seth Littrell’s job. Everything else improved during that run, but the defense is weak in the secondary and has been all year.

Miami (Ohio) meanwhile, is a largely inefficient offense that won six games off of a pretty good defense and Brett Gabbert’s ability to throw the ball way the hell down the field to Jack Sorensen and Mac Hippenhammer.

It’s not all unbalanced, though. No one in the C-USA keeps defenders out of the backfield better than North Texas, and Miami has probably the best defensive end pairing in the MAC in Lonnie Phelps and Kameron Butler.

Military: Boston College vs. East Carolina, 2:30 p.m., Dec. 27

Jeff Hafley beat a team with a winning record challenge (he will not).

Birmingham: Auburn vs. Houston, Noon, Dec. 28

Houston will be without cornerback Marcus Jones here, which is a bummer, but I think the Cougars still come out on the other end of this one comfortably. Auburn physically cannot throw the football and isn’t a whole lot better on the ground – not a ringing endorsement ahead of a matchup with one of the nation’s best defenses.

Houston’s offense isn’t significantly more trustworthy, but it has a quarterback who can throw the football and receivers who can catch it, which Auburn hasn’t yet achieved.

Tier 2: Good Stuff, Should Watch

Camelia: Ball State vs. Georgia State, 2:30 p.m., Dec. 25

Styles clash. Georgia State has made its hay for much of the season as a strong running offense that rides quarterback Darren Grainger to stay on track rather than as a key cog of moving everything down the field. Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams are a great back pairing and Grainger has added a dimension to the rushing attack that just wasn’t there with Cornelious Brown.

The Panther defense forces opponents to beat it down the field and has fared pretty well in bottling up everything underneath all season. It’s an approach that really clicked in Sun Belt play when Grainger took over the QB job and one that led directly to Georgia State taking six of its last seven games, including a win over Coastal Carolina and a near-upset of Louisiana.

Ball State too rides an efficient offense over an explosive one – though its unit has been worse across the board than Georgia State’s, despite a relatively inspiring performance in the backend of the season from quarterback Drew Plitt, who doesn’t make a whole lot of mistakes but rarely goes beyond the structure of his offense.

Defensively, Ball State wins by forcing offenses to take what it gives them, which better groups have been able to take advantage of. Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and NIU were all comfortable just moving the ball underneath and Ball State didn’t have much of an answer for any of them but bludgeoned groups that wanted bigger plays like Buffalo or Western Michigan.

That should bode well for Georgia State, but I’m curious to see if, seeing the matchup at hand, Ball State asks Plitt to do a bit more down the field in hopes of getting a few cheap ones against a defense that otherwise hasn’t been terribly easy to grab free yards off of.

Quick Lane: Nevada vs. Western Michigan, 11 a.m., Dec. 27

Boy, this one surely would have been a lot more fun without Jay Norvell jumping to Colorado State, huh? Nearly two dozen players from Nevada have either opted out or entered the portal and won’t play here since his departure, and though Kaleb Eleby and Skyy Moore are still enough to keep the intrigue high here, a full-strength Nevada would have this in the top tier without much question.

First Responder: Air Force vs. Louisville, 3:15 p.m., Dec. 28

Another great styles clash. Malik Cunningham has been excellent for Louisville in the second half of the season, and Air Force absolutely cannot defend against big plays, which Cunningham creates a ton of. Louisville, meanwhile, has one of the worst P5 run defenses against a team that… likes to run the ball. To put it lightly. This is a better version of Army-Missouri.

Tier 1: Absolutely Must Watch

Fenway: SMU vs. Virginia, 11 a.m., Dec. 29

I’m a little concerned about SMU without its head coach, but it seemed as though the Mustangs had all but given up on Sonny Dykes by the end of the season as it became apparent that his mind was elsewhere, so the chance to play for Jim Leavitt instead of Dykes might actually be a plus.

Beyond that, though, this one has all of the potential to be special. Both teams love to throw the ball and hate to defend it, and I’ve yet to see an opt-out on either side that would severely impact their ability to do that – Brennan Armstrong said he’s playing and I don’t know where Tanner Mordecai would be planning to go if he was to make a move out of this one.

That’s two really strong quarterbacks, two of the best receiving corps in the nation, and absolutely zero passing defense on either sideline.

Arizona: Boise State vs. Central Michigan, 2 p.m., Dec. 31

This rocks. Central Michigan has one of the more creative offenses I’ve seen this season and has managed to make the wildcat a legitimate viable and dangerous formation in 2021, which counts as a modern miracle of coaching. Lew Nichols III is the best running back you haven’t watched this season, and Daniel Richardson keeps things moving through the air without doing too much – read: he throws the ball to Kalil Pimpleton and not to the defense.

For a Boise State team with an increasingly impressive defense that has found a knack for solving problems in the backend of the season after a messy start, this is one of the most interesting tests yet. The Broncos didn’t have enough to solve what San Diego State brought to the table but absolutely stumped Fresno State, which I think compares more to Central Michigan than the Aztecs do.

I’m fascinated by the Andy Avalos-Jim McElwain chess match and expect it to produce some really high-quality football to round out the G5 bowl season before Cincinnati puts Nick Saban’s hands into the garbage disposal for four hours.

The Outside Zone

Ranking The G5 Bowls, Dec. 23-Dec. 31